One of the biggest games of the college football season is this weekend, as No. 4 Ohio State faces No. 3 Penn State.
And we get to watch it all unfold on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
In that game, there’s a play that I really like, and it might not be what you’re thinking.
Keep reading to see why I’m wagering the Under ahead of that huge Big Ten battle, plus a couple other best bets I have for the exciting weekend of college ball.
(All times ET)
Saturday, Nov. 2
No. 4 Ohio State @ No. 3 Penn State (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)
I have serious doubts about the ability of both teams to score in this game.
Ohio State has elite weapons at wide receiver and at quarterback in Will Howard, who can get those star Buckeyes the ball. However, their offensive line is a wreck at the moment, with left tackle Josh Simmons out and his backup most likely out, too.
We saw last weekend the impact of Simmons being out of the lineup. The offense could not move the ball against Nebraska. It actually had issues running the ball against Oregon when Simmons went out in that game.
We know the Ohio State offense is geared to be run-first with Chip Kelly and having injuries does not help with that game plan.
Penn State’s defensive line is stout and the entire defense ranks 11th in points per drive. The Nittany Lions have a high havoc rate and limit explosive plays. While Ohio State does have those explosive weapons, the Buckeyes don’t use them enough.
Penn State also has a question mark at quarterback. Drew Allar could potentially be out with a knee injury. Either way, the issue remains the same: The Nittany Lions do not generate explosive offensive plays with their wide receivers. Yes, they have an elite tight end, but that’s not enough against Ohio State’s defense. Penn State scored only 21 points against Illinois and had to battle to get to 28 against Wisconsin.
I think the Nittany Lions struggle to score in this game against the best defense they’ve faced all season. Under is my play.
PICK: Under 45 points scored by both teams combined
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Air Force @ No. 21 Army (noon, CBS)
In college football, Army’s offense is first in points per drive.
Yes, you heard that correctly: The Black Knights score the most per drive.
They are second in rushing success rate and fourth in passing success rate and that’s most likely because they don’t throw it often. They are also first in success rate in the red zone. Army scores a ton of points, and guess what? Air Force’s defense allows at least five touchdowns a game on the road.
Air Force is one of the worst teams in the sport. The Falcons are 1-6 and have failed to cover a single game this season. It’s bad. Their defense is 98th in points per drive, 103rd in defensive EPA against the rush, and they allow a ton of big plays.
Taking any Over in service academy games can be a tough ask because of all the rushing attempts. The data has shown that, when both of these teams are run-heavy, it limits the amount of possessions for either team. Less opportunity to have the ball should equal fewer points.
However, Air Force is breaking that tendency this season because its offense is so bad.
While Army’s opponents are averaging only nine offensive possessions this season, the teams playing Air Force are getting 11 possessions because the Falcons offense does not get first downs.
Even if we split the difference at 10 possessions for Army, I think the Black Knights score a touchdown on five of them.
PICK: Army team total Over 31.5 points scored
Ohio State vs. Penn State: Which coach will get this win?
USC @ Washington (7:30 p.m., BTN)
USC and Washington are the same team: They should score more points than they do, they make silly mistakes to finish out games, and both are poor on the road.
Washington is 4-0 at home and 0-4 on the road. USC is 1-3 away from home and 3-1 at home.
Well, luckily for Washington, this game is in Seattle.
Washington has not played at home in a month, while USC is traveling to Huskies territory in the cold. UW’s offense and defense are 25% better on third down while playing at home versus on the road. Huskies stop the run better. They rush the passer better. Part of that is because of their opponents, and the one they’re facing this weekend has an awful offensive line.
And USC’s defensive line is barely better.
It’s just a tough matchup for the Trojans. Also worth noting is that USC has been a road favorite three times this season and hasn’t won any of those games. Head coach Lincoln Riley is just 3-13 against the spread (ATS) as a road favorite in his last 16 opportunities. Just not good.
I like Washington to cover.
PICK: Washington (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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