One of the biggest games of college football Week 12 is the Big Noon Kickoff showdown between Utah and Colorado.
Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and the Buffs control their own destiny, so wagering on them in this spot as they host Utah will be exciting.
And there are a couple other games that I’ve got my eye on, too. UCLA, anyone? Or will the Huskies be the victors?
Let’s check out my best bets for the weekend.
(All times ET)
FRIDAY, NOV. 15
UCLA @ Washington (9 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)
Washington is an easy team to handicap.
Are the Huskies playing at home or are they playing on the road?
At home, they are 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS), failing to cover one game by just a couple of points. Away from home (four road games and one neutral site), the Huskies are 0-5 SU and ATS. This can partly be explained by the schedule.
On the road, the Huskies have faced 8-1 Washington State, 8-1 Penn State, 10-0 Indiana and 6-4 Iowa. At home, it’s been USC, Michigan and Northwestern. They score nearly two touchdowns more at home and, not surprisingly, they allow far fewer points. Also, the penalties and poor decisions by their quarterback are different at home than when on the road.
On the other hand, UCLA comes to Washington riding high.
The Bruins started 1-5 but have won three straight games. Their offense looks more competent, but it’s very pass-heavy. That is what Washington’s defense does best — it stops the pass. UCLA should struggle to move the ball against Washington.
The Huskies did bench their quarterback in the second half at Penn State, but Rogers is back in the lineup this weekend. UCLA’s pass defense is very poor, and I’d expect Washington to move the ball well.
Finally, UCLA has not historically played well in the Pacific Northwest or in the mountain states later in the season. It’s cold and rainy, and the Bruins just struggle in these situations.
Washington -4 is my wager.
PICK: Washington (-4) to win by more than 4 points
Colin & JMac’s Big Bets: Take Under For UCLA-Washington, Oregon wins, Nebraska covers
SATURDAY, NOV. 16
Utah @ No. 20 Colorado (noon, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Wagering on a game because of vibes isn’t something I’d normally promote. However, this is a vibes wager.
The vibes in Salt Lake City after a heartbreaking loss to BYU in the Holy War have worn on this Utes team. It had grand visions for its first season in the Big 12. Instead, Utah had multiple quarterback injuries and has lost five in a row after winning its first four games. Now, it heads to a smoking-hot Colorado team.
Utah is playing Issac Wilson at quarterback — the true freshman who was benched after playing for Cam Rising, who was injured earlier this season. Also, the Utes had an offensive coordinator step down and the offense barely looked better.
Off a bye against BYU, the Utes scored 21 first-half points and zero in the second half. In fact, they only had 65 second-half yards. Utah ranks 110th in points per drive and, not surprisingly, the Utes don’t reach the red zone often and aren’t good at converting opportunities into touchdowns.
There’s been so much focus on the Colorado offense that the masses haven’t noticed the defense, which sacks the quarterback and ranks 39th in points per drive. Utah won’t score in this game.
Colorado’s offense has not faced a defense like Utah since Nebraska’s defense bottled up the Buffaloes all the way back in Week 2. However, we’ve seen excellent defenses not be able to sustain success for 60 minutes when their offensive counterparts do not help them with points or with longer drives.
This is where I see Utah’s defense in this game. Start well, fade late without offensive help. I see this game finishing with Colorado winning 28-10. I’ll take Buffs to cover.
PICK: Colorado (-11.5) to win by more than 11.5 points
Alabama’s Ryan Williams claims the title of best WR in the country over Travis Hunter
No. 4 Penn State @ Purdue (3:30 p.m., CBS)
After Penn State lost to Ohio State two weeks ago, it was fair to question the Nittany Lions’ motivation last weekend against Washington. But they showed out, dominating the Huskies 35-6. So we know they will still bring their A-game against Purdue this weekend, which means no points for the Boilermakers.
Purdue has played five defenses that are similar in production to Penn State. The Boilermakers have scored 7, 10, 6 and then back-to-back shutouts against Oregon and Ohio State.
I do not think Purdue will score much or often against Penn State — even in garbage time.
Last Saturday, the Huskies had multiple garbage-time drives that resulted in zero points.
PICK: Purdue team total Under 10.5 points scored
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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