There are a few lingering questions in every bettor’s mind as we head into NFL Week 7.
Can the Saints keep up with the Broncos without Derek Carr? Will Russell Wilson lead Pittsburgh to a win if he gets the start instead of Justin Fields? Will the Panthers present a challenge to Jayden Daniels & Co.?
Lucky for you, I have the answers you’re looking for.
Let’s dive into my best bets for this weekend’s matchups.
THURSDAY, OCT. 17
Broncos @ Saints (8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime)
The New Orleans Saints are without quarterback Derek Carr and likely without receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. They’re coming off a short week, and now they face a Broncos defense that is very good.
I just don’t see how the Saints score points in this game.
Last weekend, the Saints scored 27 points, all in the second quarter and mostly in unsustainable ways. They had a punt return for a touchdown and then three short fields off tipped pass interceptions.
So, essentially, four scores off turnovers.
Otherwise, they scored zero points in the other three quarters, which included a few garbage-time drives.
The Broncos defense is carrying them right now. It is eighth in DVOA and fourth in scoring.
Give me Saints Under 17.5 points on Thursday night.
PICK: Saints team total Under 17.5 points scored
Herd Hierarchy: Bucs hop in, 49ers make their return in Colin’s Top 10 of Week 7
SUNDAY, OCT. 20
Panthers @ Commanders (4:05 p.m., CBS)
Last weekend was a reset in the NFL.
We had several weeks in which underdogs — especially those getting more than five points — were covering at a higher rate than usual.
Then, Week 5 happened.
That’s when all the bad teams finally actually looked bad. The Panthers, Raiders and Patriots all looked like the poor teams that they are in blowout losses.
I think that trend continues this weekend for Carolina.
The Panthers swapped out Bryce Young for Andy Dalton before a Week 3 game against Vegas. They blew out the Raiders, and it appeared this team was destined to play better without Young in the lineup.
That turned out to be wishful thinking.
Carolina lost by 10 to the Bengals, 26 to the Bears and just recently by 18 points to the Falcons. It is allowing 36 points per game over this stretch. And now, the Panthers get the Commanders offense off a loss at home.
Washington ranks second in offensive DVOA and second in points per game at 29.7. The Commanders should get into the 30s against this Panthers defense. The question is whether the Panthers will be able to keep up with the pace.
The Panthers offense ranks 28th in offensive DVOA. And while Washington’s defense isn’t great, and it just lost Jonathen Allen, Carolina’s offense is stuck in the mud.
I don’t think the Panthers can score enough points in this game to keep up. I’ll take the Commanders to cover.
PICK: Commanders (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points
Davante Adams traded — is this a good move for the Jets?
Jets @ Steelers (8:20 p.m., NBC)
It has been announced that the Steelers are working quarterback Russell Wilson back into the lineup against the Jets this weekend. He will take first team reps in lieu of Justin Fields, who led the Steelers to a 4-2 start.
The Steelers’ four wins are not about Fields. The defense has played well, and last Sunday, the run game came alive.
However, Fields is not turning the ball over, and he’s scrambling when needed. Wilson is coming in cold off the bench, hasn’t worked with any of this first team in live game reps and is not a mobile quarterback anymore.
Feels like a recipe for disaster.
Therefore, I do not expect the Steelers offense to move the ball.
The Jets have their issues on offense, but have better players than the Steelers. With the addition of Davante Adams, they have three legit receivers. New York also has Breece Hall and Braelon Allen at running back.
On paper, the Jets should be able to move the ball. The problem is that paper doesn’t always translate to the field. But I’m betting that the addition of Adams gives this offense a spark for this game.
Ultimately, I’m fading the Wilson-led Steelers and taking the Jets.
PICK: Jets (-1.5) to win by more than 1.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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