We don’t know for sure, but 11 electoral votes could be turning red when we count them in 2032. What am I talking about? Well, it’s the census, or that thing that we do every ten years to count the population. Check this out from Nate Moore:
Estimates from the American Redistricting Project predict that California is on track to lose three House seats—and three electoral votes—after 2030’s reapportionment. New York could drop 2 seats. Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Illinois all might lose a seat. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are each projected to gain a whopping 4 seats. Idaho and Utah, too, will tack on an additional seat.
Notice a pattern? The states projected to gain representation—and an Electoral College boost—are overwhelmingly Trump states. The states projected to lose representation are Harris states. If we exclude the battlegrounds of Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, red states will add 10 electoral votes and blue states will lose 9 electoral votes ahead of the 2032 election.
These projections, of course, might shift over the next few years. The roster of swing states could change too. Nothing is set in stone. But if the numbers hold, the electoral impact could be disastrous for Democrats.
True that nothing is set in stone, but this looks likely.
The chief problem is that more people are moving out because of the high cost of living, crime, lousy public schools, and environmental regulations that make doing business impossible. By the way, the high cost of living includes taxes, another problem.
Will Democrats get the memo and start making their states “hospitable” again. I don’t know, but that’s what they have to do to stop the bad news coming from the next census.
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