Russia and North Korea, two neighbors that have had a prickly relationship in the past, are now experiencing a boon in their bilateral ties. Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un have exchanged visits, signed a strategic cooperation agreement that U.S. officials described as equal parts concerning and desperate, and used their shared animus against the United States as the glue that keeps the partnership afloat. Moscow and Pyongyang are boosting relations to such a height that China, used to retaining most of the leverage in North Korea, is increasingly trying to get into Kim’s good graces.
Nowhere has this cooperation played out more intensively than in Ukraine, where Russian troops are slowly pressing an offensive in the Donetsk region for a high cost in men and materiel. According to Western officials, Pyongyang has delivered at least 16,500 containers of munitions and other military equipment to the Russians for use in Ukraine. North Korean short-range ballistic missiles have been employed by Russia against Ukrainian targets, although their success rate is less than impressive.
Based on numerous reports, North Korean assistance is now extending from equipment to personnel. There is growing evidence that Kim has deployed North Korean troops to Russia to aid Putin’s military campaign. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky alleged direct North Korean involvement in the war this week. A Ukrainian military intelligence official followed this up days later by asserting that Russia was organizing a new battalion consisting of 3,000 North Korean soldiers. The development is serious enough for U.S. and South Korean officials to take notice.
Moscow and Pyongyang have claimed all of this is mere speculation. However, the arrangement would make sense for both sides. For Putin, the advantage is less about having a weak, isolated state in his corner and more about padding the numbers. Putin is losing what could be as many as 1,200 personnel a day in Ukraine, yet he remains highly reluctant to institute the kind of national mobilization campaign that caused chaos in Russia’s big cities two years ago and forced hundreds of thousands of fighting-aged men to bolt out of the country. Any help to alleviate Russia’s manpower problems would be very much appreciated by the Kremlin. Whether North Korean troops would be sent to the front or stationed in Kursk to free up Russian conscripts now fighting Ukrainians, there is less important to Putin than having those options.
For Kim, the arrangement would also serve a purpose. North Korea hasn’t fought a conflict since the Korean War armistice was signed in 1953. North Korea’s army is large in quantity but poor in quality, with North Korean troops spending much of their time performing manual labor duties in the countryside. Pyongyang’s missile inventory is getting bigger, better, and more diversified, but its air force has been working off equipment from the 1950s and 1960s. The North Korean elite can’t be sure how the average North Korean soldier would perform during a war. Sending a few of them to the killing fields in Ukraine would be a test.
It’s understandable why Ukraine and South Korea would view this development in such earth-shattering terms. The security of both is negatively affected. The Ukrainians would rather not fight the Russians and the North Koreans, and Seoul, in turn, would rather not see Russian military technology get into the hands of the North Koreans.
However, for the U.S., the negatives are more of a nuisance than a game-changer. While it’s a fad in U.S. foreign policy circles to claim that Putin and his band of autocratic misfits are building an “axis” to undermine U.S. power and overturn the international system, this so-called axis is less sturdy than it appears.
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This is especially the case with Russia and North Korea, two countries with a long and often frustrating history but have nevertheless found a way to enhance their cooperation out of sheer pragmatism. Putin’s entire foreign policy is now in service of winning the war in Ukraine, so any country that can help in that endeavor will be seen favorably. North Korea, surrounded by hostile powers more powerful than itself, is constantly looking to preserve its own security and maximize its flexibility. It is more than willing to exploit Putin’s desperation to bring a great power other than China on its side — for the time being.
Putin and Kim see one another as useful. However, once the war in Ukraine ends, both could very well recalculate.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
