As the American public focuses on a this-close presidential race, political operatives and Washington insiders are preparing for something that appears more certain: the return of a Republican Senate majority.
That majority is coming with the aid of former President Donald Trump.
It’s size also rests with the fate of Trump.
Democrats have known for two years that their 51-49 hold on the Senate would be incredibly difficult to maintain in 2024.
West Virginia, Montana and Ohio are the last red states to have long-time Democratic senators, and it just so happens that all three seats are in the mix in the same year when Trump will be juicing Republican turnout to epic levels.
The easiest state, West Virginia, was made easier with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin.
Recent reports have Republican Gov. Jim Justice up by more than 30 points on his challenger in the race for the seat being vacated by Manchin.
Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana who’s managed to outmaneuver opponents for multiple cycles looks to have met his match with Navy Seal Tim Sheehy.
Initially close, the RealClearPolitics polling average has Sheehy up 7 points.
Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, viewed by many as the toughest red-state Democrat to beat, is seemingly slipping under the weight of Ohio’s red-tilt with Trump at the top of the ticket.
On Thursday, Axios reported that two separate polls have Moreno up anywhere from 1-3 points. While the RCP average still has Brown up by 0.6 points, these latest polls present an ominous trend for the long-term senator less than three weeks from the election.
Barring any unlikely incumbent Republican losses, these three pickups give Republicans a clean 52-seat majority.
While there are other senate races in play, three in Democratic strongholds have emerged as unexpected battlegrounds, and it just so happens to be the three that hold the keys to the presidency.
Because of Trump’s strength with blue collar union voters, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin present real pickup opportunities for Senate Republicans.
Democrats entered this cycle with confidence in Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania because of their experience and fundraising — but as Trump’s numbers grew, their numbers shrank.
Baldwin is now in the fight of her political life with businessman Eric Hovde, while Dave McCormick is nipping at Casey’s heels.
Michigan’s open Senate seat pitting Rep. Elissa Slotkin against former Rep. Mike Rogers is neck-and-neck with Rogers’ own internal polling showing him down only one point.
Trump’s political strength is underscored by Baldwin, Casey and Slotkin using Trump in their own political advertising.
Beyond using Trump on TV, Casey is rarely seen with Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania when she’s campaigning there.
Not only is this a stark about-face for someone that has been one of Trump’s critics but also a particularly ominous sign for Senate Democrats and the Harris campaign.
Decisions like these on a campaign are not made in a vacuum. Casey needs Trump voters to win and hanging out with Harris isn’t going to cut it.
Slotkin is even publicly sending warning flares to the Harris campaign that Harris is “underwater.”
Trump’s team – the best he’s ever had – is projecting a quiet confidence.
Harris, on the other hand, is scrambling – sitting for interviews she eschewed for the first 60 days of her campaign, attempting to win back the support she has lost in the African American, Latino and blue-collar communities of these states.
Crucially, these states almost always vote the same in presidential elections. Trump won them in 2016, then Biden in 2020.
Trump’s proven ability to bring out low propensity voters is also troubling for the Democratic campaigns.
A shift of only a percentage or two will mean victory.
Those who do come out for him overwhelmingly help carry down ballot Republicans to victory.
If Trump manages to pull off the trifecta, he will be in the White House again and more than likely three new Republican senators will be coming to Washington in 2025.
The difference between a 52-seat majority and a 55-seat majority cannot be overstated.
Senate Republicans will have a level of power they have not possessed in many years, and Trump will return to Washington with an even bigger mandate.
Lance Trover is a strategic communications and campaign strategist. He recently served as spokesperson for North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s presidential campaign.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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