2024 NFL Week 8 betting recap: ‘We had our best day in weeks’

One altruism about betting, and particularly NFL betting: The pendulum always swings back to the bookmakers. 

The public betting masses might put together a big week here or there — or maybe two or three weeks in a row — but the sportsbook is always open the next day.

After two strong weeks for the bettors, the pendulum indeed swung back in NFL Week 8 odds, mainly due to the Cleveland Browns’ upset of the Baltimore Ravens.

“That game alone should help make this a winning week. Parlay killer,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.

Even the popular Washington Commanders’ stunning win couldn’t save the public’s day.

Oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country help recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.

Cleveland Rocks

With Deshaun Watson’s season over due to an Achilles injury, the Browns turned to Jameis Winston. After Baltimore took a 24-23 lead on a Derrick Henry TD run with 2:36 remaining, the game was on Winston’s shoulders.

He only needed 1:37 of that 2:36 to guide a 69-yard touchdown drive. Winston capped the possession with a 38-yard scoring pass to Cedric Tillman, putting Cleveland up 29-24.

Lamar Jackson then drove Baltimore to the Browns 24, but the Ravens ran out of time and downs. It was a great result for BetMGM nationally because the Ravens took more point-spread tickets and money than any other team in NFL Week 8 odds.

And regionally, it was a fine result for BetMGM, as well.

“We had our best day in weeks,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said Sunday night. “A lot of underdogs barking today, none bigger than the Browns beating the Ravens.”

Added Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook: “Massive. It changed the course of our day.”

And this from another sportsbook:

But also worth noting: Sharp bettors had this game properly pegged. 

Baltimore opened a week ago as a 10.5-point favorite and stretched to -11.5 early on at some sportsbooks. But a lot of respected Cleveland money showed up, and the Ravens were only 7.5-point favorites at kickoff.

So Browns outright ultimately wasn’t good for Circa Sports, known for taking sharp action. Circa was perhaps the only sportsbook that did poorly to the Browns’ outright win.

Jeff Benson, Circa Sports’ director of operations, was quite succinct in his assessment, via text.

“Not good. Not good.”

More Barking ‘Dogs

As Shelton alluded to, key underdogs delivered in NFL Week 8 odds, particularly in Sunday’s early games. The Browns were the biggie, but so too were the New England Patriots, who, as 7-point home underdogs, upended the flagging New York Jets 25-22.

With 22 seconds left, Rhamondre Stevenson put the Pats up 23-22 with a 2-yard TD run, and he then caught a 2-point conversion pass from Jacoby Brissett for the final margin.

The Green Bay Packers were a huge public play Sunday, closing as 3.5-point favorites at Jacksonville. Green Bay won 30-27, but the Jags covered the number. Similarly, the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 23-20 but didn’t cover as 4.5-point home favorites.

“We did not have the best teams going for us, but they came through,” BetMGM trader Tristan Davis said.

In the 4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. ET window of games, the books got one more assist when the Las Vegas Raiders — 8.5-point home underdogs — got a late TD to cover in a 27-20 loss to Kansas City. The Chiefs are always popular with public bettors, and Sunday was no different.

“The Raiders’ back-door cover really saved the late slate,” Shelton said.

The reason saving was needed in the first place? The Washington Commanders.

Hail Mary Answered

OK, we’re finally getting to the play of the day, maybe the play of the season. 

Washington gave up a TD/2-point conversion to the Chicago Bears with just 25 seconds left to fall behind 15-12.

Then rookie QB Jayden Daniels rescued the Commanders. 

He hurled a Hail Mary 66 yards in the air — 52 yards from the line of scrimmage — that was tipped and landed in the hands of Noah Brown on the game’s final play. So Washington, a 1.5-point home favorite, won and covered 18-15.

“It was incredibly exciting but not good for us,” Shelton said. “We were finally going to have a great afternoon session, especially after that Raiders’ back-door. Then with one Hail Mary, not so much.”

Still, as Shelton noted above, Daniels and Brown’s heroics didn’t ruin the day.

“Complaining about a near-perfect day would be a bit much,” he said.

On Campus

College football Week 9 odds featured more give-and-take between the bettors and the bookmakers. Behind the counter, a key outcome was 1.5-point home favorite Texas A&M knocking off popular underdog LSU 38-23.

“A&M was really good for us. Michigan was really good too,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said, alluding to the Wolverines’ 24-17 win over Michigan State as 3-point home favorites.

Rivals Michigan and Michigan State break out into massive brawl at the end of the Wolverines’ 24-17 victory

BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee concurred on the A&M outcome, and Nebraska easily covering as 25.5-point underdogs at Ohio State was a big decision. The Buckeyes held on for a 21-17 victory, and the Under easily hit, too, on a total of 48.5.

“Huge result. We needed the Huskers and the Under there. It was a great game for the book,” Magee said.

But the bettors got a couple key wins, too.

“Penn State was brutal for the book, and Colorado was not good,” Magee said.

The Nittany Lions were 6.5-point favorites at Wisconsin and won 28-13, while the Buffaloes were 6-point home favorites vs. Cincinnati and won 34-23.

“We had an OK day. Bettors certainly found some spots to cash tickets,” Magee said.

At South Point, Indiana was one of those spots. The Hoosiers, 5.5-point home favorites, beat Washington 31-17.

“Indiana got us. They’ve got a good following every week, and they’ve been winning by a bunch every week,” Andrews said. “And everybody was on Vanderbilt. That team is a covering machine.”

Indeed, Vandy is 6-2 against the spread this season, after losing to Texas 27-24 but easily covering as a 17-point home underdog.

Perhaps most interestingly at South Point was a low-profile game that fell soundly in the customers’ favor: Bowling Green rolled to a 41-26 victory as a 2-point underdog at Toledo.

“The Bowling Green-Toledo game killed us,” Andrews said.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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