Josh Allen is a dual-threat quarterback who has always shown an ability to make jaw-dropping plays. But this season, it’s his ability to limit his mistakes while still leading his team to victories that has him nipping at the heals of Lamar Jackson in the MVP race.
Allen had another standout performance in the Bills‘ dominant 31-10 victory over the Seahawks last Sunday. He finished with 282 passing yards and two touchdowns and totaled another 25 yards on the ground. Allen did throw an interception, but it was his first of the season. He’s third in the league in passer rating (107.6) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (14).
Another area of Allen’s game that has changed this season is fewer called runs for the QB. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen has averaged just 1.0 designed run per game after having averaged at least 1.8 designed runs per game in every other season of his career. He has carried the ball just seven times for 23 yards on designed runs, scoring a touchdown and three first downs. He’s averaging a career-low 3.3 yards per carry on such attempts.
Instead of leaning on Allen to carry the football in critical moments, the Bills are looking to RB James Cook, who has emerged as the top running threat to balance the offense. Cook has 452 rushing yards and seven touchdowns through eight games — the most TDs by a Bills player in the first eight games of a season since Travis Henry had eight in 2003.
In Week 9, Allen seeks his fifth straight victory over the Miami Dolphins. He has at least two touchdown passes in 12 of his 13 career starts against the Dolphins and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his past five games.
Allen’s efficient play through the first half of the season has moved him into a tie with Jackson atop the MVP odds board, with both players at 3/1. Allen has been an MVP finalist three times, but he has never won the award.
Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray were the big movers this week. Hurts jumped from 28/1 to 15/1, while Murray moved from 25/1 to 18/1.
Here’s my top five for Week 9.
1. Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Another thing Allen and the Bills have done well this season is create yards after the catch. Of Allen’s 1,766 total passing yards this season, 57.7% of them have come after the catch, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL and his first career season above 50%, according to Next Gen Stats.
Allen has had a career-high 20.5% of his total attempts behind the line of scrimmage this season.
2. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Jackson was solid in a disappointing road loss to the Cleveland Browns. He finished 23-of-38 for 289 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a respectable 101.8 passer rating. He also rushed for 46 yards.
But Jackson and the Ravens had trouble closing out the game, finishing with just one touchdown in the final four possessions and going 2-for-10 on third down. Jackson was 8-of-16 for 120 yards with no touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
The addition of receiver Diontae Johnson via trade this week gives Jackson another playmaker on the perimeter in crunch time.
How much does Diontae Johnson help Lamar Jackson & Co.?
3. Jared Goff, Lions
Current MVP Odds: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
The Cal product has been the best player on the most dynamic offense in the league. The Lions lead the league in scoring at 33.4 points per game, and Goff has the highest completion percentage (83%) and passer rating (146.5) over a five-game span in league history.
Though Goff threw for just 85 yards in Detroit’s 52-14 victory over the Tennessee Titans in Week 8, he did become the first player with three touchdown passes on 85 or fewer passing yards in a regular-season game since Steve Grogan in 1976.
4. Jayden Daniels, Commanders
Current MVP Odds: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Daniels is the main reason Washington sits atop the NFC East and is in the driver’s seat for a surprising playoff spot. The LSU product hasn’t flinched under intense pressure as a rookie quarterback in the NFL.
Daniels has done particularly well when blitzed, completing 71% of his passes and averaging 10.1 yards per attempt. Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has done a good job each week of providing quick, decisive answers for Daniels when pressured.
Or, just letting Daniels use his amazing athletic ability to make a play.
5. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Current MVP Odds: +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Arizona has somehow found a way to claw back to the .500 mark at 4-4 this season. And Murray has been at the center of that resurgence. Over his past two games, both Arizona wins, he has completed 65% of his passes for 452 yards and three touchdowns, with one interception.
Murray is also No. 3 in rush yards (344) and No. 1 in yards per carry (8.4) among quarterbacks.
Honorable mention: Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
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