Former President Donald Trump currently leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 0.3% in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls and by an average of 0.9% in the battleground states. Both results are well within the margins of error of the individual polls included in the averages. Thus, it’s appropriate to describe the current presidential race as neck and neck. Right?
If polls are the only indicator you’re looking at, that might be a fair statement. However, there are other ways to gauge where the candidates stand with the electorate.
Earlier this week, Brit Hume, Fox News chief political analyst, who has covered his fair share of presidential elections, recalled how reporters used to assess a political candidate’s prospects in the “old days,” when polls were either “nonexistent” or “old.” They were forced to rely on other factors.
“You’d rely on how the candidate seemed,” he said. “You relied on their events, how the events seemed to go, how well-organized they seemed to be. You looked at the response of the audience at these events. … You watched for other signs to pick up a sense of the race. And you could pretty well do it. … There are upsets in every election cycle, but you could get a sense of it.”
“If I were covering it the same way we used to cover it, I would look at this and say, Trump appears to be in the ascendancy. His campaign seems to have momentum. His events seem to be more exciting. They seem to be going better,” Hume continued.
Harris, he said, “seems to be struggling. She struggles to answer questions. She’s not doing well in interviews. And so on.”
However, the current polls “don’t reflect that,” he said. “The polls say this is absolutely neck and neck. Judged the old-fashioned way, it wouldn’t appear to be. Judged the way we judge them now because we’re just surrounded by polls, that’s where we’re getting the idea that this race is tight.”
Hume is correct. Trump has momentum in this race, and it has come at the best time possible. He is riding high after a string of public relations wins. Trump’s brief stint as a fry cook at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s was a stroke of genius. His three-hour interview with top podcast host Joe Rogan was viewed by tens of millions of voters. He made liberal heads explode with his tour de force at Madison Square Garden last Sunday. He leveled Presidents Biden and Harris with his garbage truck stunt. The chef’s kiss was his message: “You can’t lead America if you don’t love Americans.”
Conversely, Harris has stumbled repeatedly. When her campaign’s media-created momentum stalled in early October, she embarked upon a media blitz. Her performances ranged from lackluster to disastrous. Particularly damaging were her interviews with 60 Minutes host Bill Whitaker and Fox News’s Bret Baier, who had the temerity to ask her tough questions.
Moreover, Harris foolishly opted to skip the Al Smith dinner in New York City. Worse still, she prerecorded a cringeworthy video to be played at the event instead. Trump showed up for the occasion and was said to have “killed it” with his hilarious speech. It was a missed opportunity for the vice president.
Then, in order to boost turnout ahead of Harris’s rally in Houston, Texas, last week, “anonymous sources” who were “familiar with the plan” told reporters that Beyonce would be performing at the event. When the iconic singer left the stage without singing, supporters weren’t shy about expressing their anger and profound sense of betrayal.
Outside of her base, Harris’s insistence that a Trump victory would mark the end of democracy in America is not resonating. Most voters see it as a lie, and her melodramatic delivery of this message comes across as disingenuous. For example, during an October rally in La Crosse, Wisconsin, she told supporters: “Let us be very clear. Someone who suggests we should terminate the Constitution of the United States should never again stand behind the seal of the president of the United States. Never again.” Her anger rising, she railed, “Never again. Never again!”
On a Tuesday night Zoom call with members of Voto Latino, Biden inexplicably called Trump supporters garbage. The stunning remark sucked all of the oxygen out of Harris’s simultaneous and much ballyhooed “closing message” on the Ellipse in Washington, D.C.
Reacting to Biden’s latest gaffe, pollster Frank Luntz told CNN, “In 2024, I can promise you that this is going to drive Trump turnout. This may be a turning point for those final 3%, and that’s all it is, who still need to be persuaded.”
Pollster and political strategist Craig Keshishian, a former Reagan administration official, argued in a Tuesday op-ed that while Trump and Harris appear to be locked into a dead heat, the race is not as close as it looks. He said the polls are missing a “hidden voter surge,” and he is “reminded of Ronald Reagan’s landslide 1980 victory.” In the last week of October, former President Jimmy Carter led former President Ronald Reagan nationally by 1 point in two major polls.
Arguably, the most important economic indicator of all, the right track/wrong track poll, favors a Trump victory. According to CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten, “There isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won.”
After all the strange twists and drama of the 2024 election cycle, there may be more to come, and all we can do is brace for impact.
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Elizabeth Stauffer is a contributor to the Washington Examiner and the Western Journal. Follow her on X or LinkedIn.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
