November has arrived, which means we have one more weekend of games until the College Football Playoff committee releases its first weekly rankings on Tuesday. The first ranking reveal always gives us a good picture of how the committee views each team and what their respective paths are to making the CFP.
Of course, this year is different. This year is the first season of the 12-team playoff. Typically, there are only around 12 teams with a chance of making the CFP around this time of the year during the four-team format. This year, I believe there are 27 programs that still have a path. If we still had the four-team field, I think there would’ve only been 14 teams that still had a legitimate shot at making it. So, I think this is great for the sport.
Before I go through the 27 teams that still have a legitimate shot at the CFP, let’s take a look at my projected 12-team field.
First-round byes
1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. BYU
I’ve got Oregon taking down Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, Georgia defeating Texas in the SEC championship game, Clemson beating Miami (Fla.) in the ACC championship game and BYU beating Kansas State for the Big 12 title. In this forecast, Oregon would be undefeated, giving it an edge over Georgia. I still believe in Clemson, and I’m really starting to believe in BYU, who’s reminding me of the TCU team that made it to the national championship game in 2022.
First-round matchups
No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 Miami (Fla.)
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Alabama
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. No. 9 Tennessee
First team out: Indiana
If Ohio State gets to the Big Ten championship game, that means it will likely defeat Penn State or Indiana. That would be enough to give the Buckeyes the No. 5 seed, especially if they lose another close game to Oregon.
So, Texas would slide to No. 6 due to lacking those quality wins. Texas could beat Texas A&M in College Station, but I’ve actually got Texas A&M losing to South Carolina this weekend. So, a win on the road over the Aggies would lose some luster for the Longhorns in this scenario.
I think Penn State and Notre Dame are likely to be 11-1. If the Nittany Lions lose this weekend and win out, I believe they’d have done enough to slide into the No. 7 seed. So, Notre Dame would get the No. 8 seed, getting knocked down a peg due to its loss to Northern Illinois.
I believe Tennessee and Alabama will finish the year at 10-2. If Alabama gets to 10-2, that means it would have wins over Georgia and LSU. But Tennessee would rank above Alabama in this scenario because Tennessee defeated Alabama.
That leaves one more at-large bid, which I think would come down to Miami and Indiana in this scenario. The Hurricanes would likely be 12-1, while the Hoosiers would probably be at 11-1. Both strength of schedules will rightly be scrutinized. Miami would get the edge because it has the extra win, and I think having a Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Cam Ward might help it here. I also want to be fair and not penalize a team that lost its conference championship game.
Texas & Ohio State in Joel Klatt’s November 12-team CFP bracket
Now, let’s take a look at which 27 teams are still alive in the playoff hunt, conference by conference.
SEC (7)
Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Texas A&M
Each of these three teams could probably lose another game in the regular season and still make the CFP based on what each team has already done this season. However, Texas A&M has a caveat. It has to win its next three games (at South Carolina, vs. New Mexico State, at Auburn) before facing Texas in the regular-season finale. Even though Notre Dame was a non-conference loss, the Fighting Irish are still lingering, and the Aggies should want to avoid being on the bubble next to them. If both Texas A&M and Notre Dame are 10-2 when the season ends, Notre Dame has the head-to-head victory in its back pocket. So, Texas A&M has to win those three games. If it does, it might make the SEC championship game, regardless of the result of the game against Texas.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (10) replaced Conner Weigman in the second half of its win over LSU, scoring three touchdowns in the victory. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU
I believe it’s going to be difficult for a three-loss team to make the CFP. So, each of these three teams has to win out in order to still have a chance at making it. That means the Alabama-LSU game on Nov. 6 is unofficially the first playoff game of the year. It also means Ole Miss has to beat Georgia.
Sorry, Missouri. Even if you go 10-2, you’d likely have zero ranked wins and your only games against ranked teams were both blowout losses.
Big Ten (5)
Oregon
At 8-0, the Ducks probably have the cleanest path to the CFP out of any team in the nation. I don’t see them falling out of one of the Big Ten championship game slots, let alone the 12-team playoff.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions should make it if they go 11-1. We think highly of them and I think the committee will, too. But if they lose two games in November, they might be one of the 10-2 teams that I think misses the postseason because they’d lack a marquee win, assuming they’d lose to Ohio State in this scenario. Just win this weekend and you’re good, Penn State.
Ohio State vs. Penn State: Which coach will get this win?
Indiana
The Hoosiers are the team I’m most interested in seeing the committee’s thoughts on. Indiana should be ranked above fellow undefeated Miami as it has been dominant in every game. But if the committee’s thoughts on Indiana are similar to the AP Poll’s, the Hoosiers will have to go at least 11-1 to get in the field.
Ohio State
If the Buckeyes take care of business in the games they should win (vs. Purdue, at Northwestern, vs. Michigan), I think they just need to win at least one of the games against Penn State and Indiana. The Ohio State brand is big enough that we’d say it’s absolutely in the CFP at 10-2. Of course, Ohio State would rather win all those games and play for the Big Ten title.
Ohio State & Penn State still alive for a College Football Playoff berth
Michigan
This is the only team I can possibly see going 9-3 and making the CFP. Before you roll your eyes, the committee is supposed to consider how you’re playing at the end of the year. We saw how Michigan struggled offensively to open the year, but if it wins out, it’d have victories over Oregon, Indiana and Ohio State. I’m not predicting this to happen, but with how good Michigan’s defense can be when healthy, the door is at least open.
Big 12 (4)
BYU and Iowa State
The path for the Cougars and Cyclones is pretty obvious: Keep winning, and you’ll probably get in. At first, I wasn’t sure if the Big 12 would get two bids to the CFP. But if both teams make it to the conference title game and are 12-0, the loser of that game would be 12-1. They’d have two wins over teams on the bubble. But I think this is the only way we get two teams from the Big 12.
Kansas State and Colorado
The Wildcats and Buffaloes likely won’t be able to make it to the CFP without winning the conference title game. Kansas State has a more secure path between the two teams because it has a game remaining against Iowa State. Colorado will need Kansas State to lose to Iowa State and BYU to trip up at some point while winning a tiebreaker in order to reach the Big 12 championship game.
Joel Klatt reveals why Colorado is a serious threat to dominate the Big 12
ACC (4)
Miami (Fla.) and Clemson
Similar to the Big 12, there’s likely only one way for the ACC to get two playoff bids. If Clemson gives Miami its only regular-season loss in the conference title game, I could see both teams going to the CFP, but I don’t think Miami can stub its toe in the regular season and make it as an at-large team. If Clemson runs the table in the regular season, I could see the Tigers making the postseason as an at-large 11-2 team.
Miami QB Cam Ward is among the favorites to win the Heisman as he’s second in the nation in passing yards and touchdowns. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Getty Images)
The path for Pitt is a bit more dicey. Pitt has to beat SMU on Saturday and Clemson on Nov. 16. The Panthers have three wins by four points or fewer. Quarterback Eli Holstein is banged up. So, I don’t see it happening for the Panthers, but there’s a path.
SMU
This is another team that has to run the table in order to get in, especially because SMU’s only loss was to BYU.
Independents (1)
Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s going to have buoyancy in the playoff picture because of its win over Texas A&M. I think the Fighting Irish might still be in the mix even if they lose one more game this season due to that.
Group of 5 (6)
Boise State
If Boise State wins the Mountain West, I think it’ll be the Group of 5 representative. It’s as simple as that.
Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty leads the nation in rushing yards and is among the favorites to win the Heisman. (Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)
Army is probably next in line after Boise State, considering how it has been playing as an undefeated team. If it runs the table and Boise State goes down, Army is likely getting that Group of 5 spot.
If there’s some chaos in the AAC and UNLV defeats Boise State in the Mountain West championship game, the Rebels probably have the inside track to getting the Group of 5 spot. UNLV has been getting some love from the AP Top 25 Poll at points this season.
For either of these three to make it, you’d need the inverse of the UNLV scenario. If either Navy, Tulane or Memphis run the table to win the AAC and Boise State doesn’t win the Mountain West, there’s a path for one of these teams.
[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]
Get more from College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
This article was originally published at www.foxsports.com
