Eight states are set to decide the fate of which party controls the Senate for the next two years.
Republicans are the slight favorites to win the upper chamber, which has a one-seat Democratic majority. If Democrats hold on, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will continue in his time as leader, but the leader of the Republican caucus remains a mystery as longtime leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced he would not seek the post again.
Of the 34 Senate races this election, here are the ten races to watch on Election Day:
Michigan
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are both running to take over retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-MI) seat in the Michigan Senate race.
In the weeks leading up to the election, polls have indicated Slotkin is running ahead of Rogers. Michigan is one of several ‘blue wall’ states both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump view as “must win.”
Montana
Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) time in the Senate could be coming to an end as he faces Republican businessman Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL and first-time candidate, in the state’s Senate race. In 2024’s polarized political climate, it has made it difficult for Tester to hang on to his seat and urge people to vote for a Democrat in such a red state.
Tester has tried to paint Sheehy, who moved to Montana in 2014 after leaving the military, as a wealthy out-of-stater and a threat to Montana residents’ access to public lands and abortion rights.
Sheehy has consistently been polling ahead of Tester. Outside of the West Virginia senate race, Montana is widely considered Republicans’ best chance at flipping a seat.
Nebraska
In Nebraska’s closer-than-expected Senate race, Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) is facing a strong challenge from independent candidate Dan Osborn.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the Senate race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” in late September.
Still, an Osborn win might not be a total Democratic victory as he has repeatedly said he wouldn’t caucus with either party.
Nevada
In Nevada, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NY) will face Republican Sam Brown in the state’s senate race. Rosen has been consistently polling ahead of Trump here as Brown continues to underperform the former president’s vote share.
While Rosen appeared to be vulnerable early on in the race, her seat appears more likely to be a Democratic hold as momentum for Brown has stalled.
Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is in for what may be the toughest defense of a Senate seat this cycle, besides Tester in Montana. In his fourth run for Senate, Brown is facing Republican Bernie Moreno.
Polls have consistently shown razor-thin margins in this race with both Brown and Moreno consistently coming within polls’ margin of error, suggesting the race is anyone’s to win.
Ohio, the once swing state that voted for President Barack Obama twice, has moved to the right in recent years and now appears solidly red in presidential races. Trump is polling ahead in the state, and political operatives believe a victory at the presidential level could be enough to pull off a Moreno win.
Pennsylvania
Three-term Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) will face Republican Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. Polls have generally indicated that Casey is ahead of McCormick.
Pennsylvania is the prize of all battleground states this year for Harris or Trump as it has the most electoral votes, 19, of all the swing states.
West Virginia
When longtime Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) announced his retirement this year, West Virginia’s open senate seat seemed all but certain to go to a Republican. Here, Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) and Democrat Glenn Elliott will face each other.
Justice has been polling double digits ahead of Elliott throughout this campaign. This race is considered to be Republicans’ best chance at flipping a Senate seat.
Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) will face Republican businessman Eric Hovde in the state’s Senate race. Hovde ran for Senate in 2012 but did not advance in the primary.
Baldwin has represented Wisconsin in both the House and Senate for over two decades combined. She has a history of making inroads with rural and red-leaning parts of the state, having won the endorsement of the Wisconsin Farmers Bureau, marking the first time the group endorsed a Democratic candidate for statewide office in 20 years.
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According to the final Marquette University Law poll, Baldwin has a 2-point lead over Hovde and is outrunning Harris in the state by a slight margin.
Democrats have painted Hovde as an out-of-touch Californian due to his residency in California and his strong business presence in Orange County. Hovde was, however, born and raised in Wisconsin, and his family’s property company is well known in the state.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
