GOP challenger Dave McCormick has defeated incumbent Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey in the state’s pivotal Senate race, according to The Associated Press.
The AP called the race Thursday afternoon, projecting that McCormick will narrowly win with 49% of the vote compared to Casey’s 48.5% share. As of Thursday, 99% of the votes had been counted, and the Casey campaign has highlighted that the tight margin may ultimately trigger an automatic recount as required by state law.
“As the Pennsylvania Secretary of State said this afternoon, there are tens of thousands of ballots across the Commonwealth still to count, which includes provisional ballots, military and overseas ballots, and mail ballots,” Casey campaign spokeswoman Maddy McDaniel said in a statement released moments after the race was called. “This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian voice is heard.”
The Pennsylvania Senate race was widely touted as one of the most important and competitive Senate races in the country in the 2024 election cycle. Cumulatively, the Casey and McCormick campaigns, as well as a number of aligned outside groups, spent almost $300 million on the race, according to PennLive. (RELATED: ‘I’m The Underdog’: Dave McCormick Sees ‘Momentum’ In Uphill Battle For Pivotal Senate Seat)
Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick speaks as former President Donald Trump listens during a campaign rally at Lancaster Airport on November 3, 2024 in Lititz, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
McCormick is a veteran and successful businessman who ran against Casey after failing to secure the GOP nomination in 2022 for the U.S. Senate seat that was ultimately won by Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman after beating Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz. Casey, whose father formerly served as the governor of Pennsylvania, was seeking his fourth term in the Senate.
Throughout the campaign, McCormick worked to tie Casey to the record of the Biden-Harris administration. Casey voted with President Joe Biden 99% of the time through the first two years of the Biden presidency, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Casey enjoyed a commanding advantage in the polls early in the race, leading McCormick by as much as nine points in the RealClearPolitics polling average at the start of March. The polls tightened significantly as the election drew closer, and McCormick ultimately surged over the top to unseat the longtime incumbent Casey.
President-Elect Donald Trump also managed to flip Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, winning the Keystone State by about two percentage points. McCormick will join the GOP Senate majority in the next congress, joining fellow incoming Republicans Jim Justice of West Virginia, Tim Sheehy of Montana, Bernie Moreno of Ohio and potentially others.
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