2024 NFL Week 13 Best Bets: Back favorites to win, cover

There’s not enough Thanksgiving turkey in the world that could peel me away from watching this weekend’s slate of NFL games.

In other words, we’ve got some good ones on deck. So if you’re wagering on the NFL Week 13 action like I am, I got you covered.

Let’s dive into my best bets.

(All times ET)

SUNDAY, DEC. 1

Steelers @ Bengals (1 p.m., CBS)

If you want the microwave handicap: The Bengals season comes down to this game, because dropping to 4-8 would mean they have zero chance at the playoffs. 

So Cincinnati wins, right?

Weirdly, the Bengals have not been good at home this season, going 1-4, including losses to the Patriots and Commanders. But not all games are created equal. And the Bengals actually look much more competent against divisional rivals at home, beating the Browns and leading the Ravens the entire second half before a late collapse. 

In an oddity, Joe Burrow has not beaten the Steelers at home, going 0-2. He’s 3-0 in Pittsburgh, whatever that’s worth. 

If you like Cincinnati here, consider making a bet on Cincy to make the playoffs, because the Bengals’ next two games are against Dallas and Tennessee. They’ll be favored in those games. Then they play Cleveland, Denver and Pittsburgh, and they’ll have the better quarterback in all those games.

If you want to get really exotic, consider betting the Steelers to miss the playoffs because their schedule is the toughest in the NFL in December and January.

PICK: Bengals (-3) to win by more than 3 points

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Rams @ Saints (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

This line feels light because just two weeks ago, the Browns were -1.5 at the Saints. 

The Rams are clearly a better team than the Browns and have a higher power rating. Ah, but the Rams are coming off a tough Sunday night loss, and the Saints have quietly won two in a row after a seven-game losing streak.

Still, I’m on the Rams here, and their 5-6 record is overblown. 

They’ve lost to the Lions (best team in football), Cardinals (tied for first place), Bears (tough spot after the 49ers win), Packers (8-3), Dolphins (which got healthy at the right time) and Eagles (9-2). Sure, the loss to the Bears was a bad one and the Miami one was a bit puzzling, but the rest of those teams are division leaders or Super Bowl contenders. 

The Rams should have their way with a bad Saints secondary, and Matt Stafford won’t be under pressure like he was against the Eagles and Dolphins (sacked a combined nine times). 

PICK: Rams (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

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Buccaneers @ Panthers (4:05 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)

This line feels like an overreaction to the Panthers pushing the Chiefs last week to the final gun. 

But did they really push K.C.? 

It was 20-9 at the half, then 27-16 in the third quarter and the Chiefs had scored on their first five possessions. They did sputter in the red zone and currently fall in the middle of the pack, ranking 16th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Tampa Bay ranks second in the red zone, only behind Baltimore. The Bucs have shown up well on the road, winning at Detroit, forcing overtime against the Chiefs, and hanging 51 on the Saints. 

Tampa’s got Mike Evans back. And the Bucs are using the three-headed monster at running back to perfection. As they look to grab a lead passing, they can then can just hammer you into submission with Irving, White and Tucker. They’re a difficult team to defend when you toss in emerging TE Cade Otton. 

Through multiple head coaches and QBs across both sides, Tampa has won seven of eight from Carolina. In five of those wins, the Bucs have topped 30 points. 

PICK: Tampa (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

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