A slow-motion U.S. national security disaster has unfolded in Latin America over the past twenty years. This is a painful statement for me to make, because I was personally involved in the turnaround in U.S.-Latin American relations between 1980 and 1990.
Before 1980, almost two-thirds of Latin America’s population lived under military or Marxist dictatorships. There were active insurgencies backed by Cuba and the USSR from north of the Panama Canal to the spires of the Andes. I became politically active in Latin America beginning in 1982, working for the Reagan Administration and later as a political consultant and for the State Department and NGOs. I visited war refugee camps in Honduras and El Salvador, toured front-line military bases, met with a disaffected Sandinista comandante seeking American aid to open a second front in a covert war, and taught political campaign techniques in countries recently-emerged from military rule like Argentina and Chile.
President Reagan’s combination of robust economic, diplomatic and military engagement with Latin America (along with a healthy dose of covert action) not only turned the tide on Marxist insurgencies in Nicaragua and El Salvador but also led to the rapid cessation of military regimes across the continent. Between 1980 and 1989 nine Latin America countries with a combined population of almost 200 million people jettisoned juntas for democracies. This dramatic expansion of personal freedom was unequalled until the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, when almost 290 million people in the USSR and 310 million in Eastern Europe threw off communist rule.
This great liberation of humanity is historically unparalleled. In slightly more than a decade, 800 million people around the world exchanged tyranny for liberty. Free societies blossomed where state control had been absolute. Creative energies were unleashed across Europe, Russia and Latin America. The U.S. was Latin America’s biggest trading partner, often running a positive trade balance.
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After 9/11 a succession of U.S. presidents shifted their focus to fighting terrorism, nation-building in the Middle East, “pivoting toward Asia,” muddling through the “Great Recession” and resetting relations with Russia. Chinese influence began replacing ours in what used to be considered America’s “backyard.” From Nicaragua and Venezuela to Bolivia and Brazil, leftist governments with scant regard for rule of law started to supplant democracies.
China understands Latin America’s strategic significance. In a 2016 policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean, the People’s Republic of China laid out a comprehensive strategy for cultivating relations with the region, including building military ties and cooperation. Beijing’s strategists cited the 2009 recession as a turning point in history that opened the door to stronger ties between China and Latin America.
Today China is South America’s largest trading partner. Counting countries north of the Panama Canal the U.S. remains Latin America’s largest trade partner, with China running close behind. The region’s largest economies — Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico – have signed comprehensive strategic partnerships with China. They are economic, social, political, and military. Beijing’s “Belt and Road” initiative lavishes infrastructure spending on Latin countries while simultaneously saddling them with debt and giving China leverage over them.
Much of that infrastructure can be turned against the U.S. in a conflict over Taiwan. Ryan C. Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, laid bare the problems in a recent paper titled “Ending the Strategic Vacuum: A U.S. Strategy for Latin America.” Berg says China’s $3.5 billion dollar deepwater port in Chancay, Peru, is an example. It can accommodate Chinese Navy vessels and provides a direct maritime link between China and South America. China has contracts to manage or upgrade more than three dozen ports across the region, according to CSIS. Beijing has also been investing in space infrastructure throughout Latin America.
President Trump recently cited Chinese-owned facilities in the Panama Canal as potential security threats to U.S. maritime traffic. In a war with China the Panama Canal could be bottled up.
Direct Chinese military aid is also growing rapidly. Between 2006 and 2022 China exported more than $650 million dollars in military equipment, from small arms to fighter jets, to the region. For the first time ever, this fall Chinese Marines participated in a Brazilian military exercise simulating amphibious landings. It was called “Operation Formosa,” a thinly-veiled reference to Taiwan. Formosa is the name of a short-lived republic on the island.
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According to Berg, democracy in Latin America is suffering because of China.
“As previous research from CSIS demonstrates,” he writes, “China’s expansion in the region has coincided with massive declines in the quality of governance and democracy” The research shows that this may be far more than a coincidence, with China’s engagement contributing to democratic backsliding in Latin America.”
Restoring American standing in the region should be a top priority for the Trump Administration.
John B. Roberts II worked in the Reagan White House and was an international political strategist. Born in Panama, he worked extensively in Latin America. His website is www.jbrobertsauthor.com.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
