U.S. foreign policy is at its strongest when it is bipartisan. Take, for example, the U.S.-India partnership, developed over a quarter century with the support of every U.S. president since George W. Bush. Its success as a strategic pillar for the 21st century is a testament to the consistency with which successive administrations recognized India’s importance.
Contrast that with failed U.S. policy toward Yemen and Iran. When President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken entered office, they voided sanctions on the Houthis and ended “maximum pressure” on Iran. They based their actions less on the reality of either’s actions and more on politics: Biden and Blinken sought to do the opposite of Trump. The only truism of such “whiplash” diplomacy is it always ends poorly for the United States.
There is much Biden’s team fumbled in the Middle East. National security adviser Jake Sullivan was particularly clueless as he bragged in Foreign Affairs just weeks before the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel that, due to Biden’s policies, “the region is quieter than it has been for decades.” But it also got some things right.
During his first term, President-elect Donald Trump shifted the focus of U.S. Middle East policy from endless discussions of Israel-Palestinian peace to the Abraham Accords and the possibility of cooperation with the Arab Gulf states.
With time, the Biden team quietly corrected its initial errors. It stopped its gratuitous Saudi-bashing and recognized the centrality of the region. By the end of Biden’s term, the Gulf Cooperation Council was more coherent than it was pre-Biden. Americans have a habit of taking credit for everything, but Biden’s Middle East team deserves some, though the crucial element was the decision by Gulf countries to bury the hatchet and work together. Ironically, the Gaza conflict also brought the Gulf Cooperation Council together in a pragmatic way from the 2017 nadir when the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain partially blockaded Qatar.
Bahrain, like India, is a rare recipient of bipartisan appreciation. In the 20 years since Bahrain and the U.S. signed a free trade agreement, nonoil trade has tripled to $3 billion. Less than a month before war erupted between Israel and Hamas, Blinken and Bahraini Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa signed the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement, which the United Kingdom subsequently joined. Bahrain was the only Arab country to join with the U.S. in every effort to confront the Houthis. Momentum suggests Trump could build on these achievements to win greater achievements. Later this year, Bahrain will open its U.S. Trade Zone.
The GCC was formed in 1981 against the backdrop of Iran’s Islamic Revolution. For decades, it was hopeless, but Bahrain helped raise the floor for GCC security contributions and, with its condemnation of Hamas, its moral clarity. Trump should embrace the GCC as a mechanism to secure the region without overreliance on the U.S. He might even bring Jordan into the nontreaty proto-alliance.
While Saudi-Israel normalization remains the prize, Trump can achieve more. Saudis trust Republicans more than Democrats. They recognize that on artificial intelligence, the U.S. has the winning hand. Riyadh also wants to cooperate on 5G and 6G. Trump, the consummate deal maker, can leverage this desire to get Saudi commitments on China. Just as the Lobito Corridor seeks to direct African trade away from China toward the Americas, Trump can revive the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor to pivot vital mineral trade away from China and toward the West.
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Republicans criticize Qatar, but the end goal should be reform, not knee-jerk Qatar-bashing. The GCC architecture can ameliorate American concerns with Doha. While Qatari sympathy toward radical movements has been problematic, the country is not monolithic in its embrace — there remains room to push more responsible factions into power.
The Middle East that Trump will inherit is not the same Middle East he left behind. Biden made mistakes, but he also advanced opportunities. It would be to America’s benefit if Trump preserved success and built upon it.
Michael Rubin is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is the director of analysis at the Middle East Forum and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
