A way forward on Ukraine

During his first term, Trump recognized that the United States has a core security interest in preserving a free and independent Ukraine and beating back Russian aggression. He, unlike former President Barack Obama, chose to arm, not just aid, Ukraine. He, unlike former President Joe Biden, understood that American strength on the world stage deterred our enemies. 

He also saw that support for Ukraine isn’t generosity but a cold-eyed extension of a strategic truth: a peaceful Europe and global economic stability are critical to America’s long-term security and prosperity.

Now, Trump’s return to office offers him a real chance to achieve a lasting peace that ends the fighting, deters Russia from further aggression, and gets Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense. We cannot lose that opportunity because of a dustup in the Oval Office. If peace fails, Vladimir Putin and his partners in China, Iran, and North Korea will be the winners.

Putting aside the media hysteria, here is what Trump has put forward: end the bloodshed, advance American interests through an agreement that gives our nation a vested interest in Ukraine’s economic future, and preserve Ukraine as a free and independent country backed by European security guarantees. Despite Friday’s debacle, that path remains open and is the best way to promote peace while restoring deterrence.

This approach will only work if Europe carries more of the load. Americans overwhelmingly support defending our NATO allies in case of attack, but they’re also tired of investing billions on behalf of sometimes ungrateful allies while underinvesting in the border and law and order at home. Europe must do much more. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently acknowledged that Russia produces more ammunition in three months than the entire alliance produces in a year. This weak leadership is unacceptable. Any successful peace settlement in Ukraine requires our European allies to end their holiday from history and become credible defense partners.

That’s why Europe must step forward to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. Admitting Ukraine to NATO is not realistic or advisable, given the lack of political consensus in the U.S. and many allied nations. Instead, stronger European militaries, backed by U.S. intelligence, logistics, weapons, and economic investment, can provide the Ukrainian government and its people confidence that a deal will hold without American troops.

Pennsylvania is home to more than 150,000 Ukrainian Americans. I’ve heard many of their stories and share their desire for Putin to be held accountable for his aggression against Ukraine. Russia must return the tens of thousands of Ukrainian children its forces have taken from their homes, and a peace agreement will undoubtedly facilitate the return of Ukrainian prisoners of war who have faced appalling treatment in Russian prisons.

History shows peace agreements are never perfect and inevitably leave both sides disappointed. For example, Ukraine is unlikely to reclaim its pre-2014 borders, erased when Obama sat on his hands while Russia took Crimea. However, stopping the killing and giving Ukraine a secure future is the best way to thwart Putin’s geopolitical ambitions while forcing him to justify to his people the 700,000 Russian soldiers killed or wounded in this war.

At the same time, the minerals deal that Zelensky was supposed to sign at the White House would give Ukrainians security no paper treaty can ever provide. Paper can be replaced with paper, but economic partnerships last. This partnership will also mobilize the international investment necessary to build a new Ukraine, which, according to the World Bank, will cost over half a trillion dollars. Americans will benefit too — some of the aid money previously sent to Ukraine will come back home, and companies in America and Europe, not China, will play a leading role in reconstruction.

THE TRUMP-ZELENSKY MEETING EXPLAINED

Former President Ronald Reagan once observed that NATO’s central concern should be “what will Europe look like in 15 years?” The moment represents not just Ukraine’s best chance for a prosperous and secure future in the decades ahead but also the best path for a stronger and more stable Europe. 

It’s time for Ukraine to come back to the negotiating table and our European allies to step up. With their support and the long shadow of U.S. military and economic might looming over the negotiating table, the president and his team are uniquely equipped to orchestrate a deal many thought impossible a few months ago. If they succeed, it will be a crowning achievement of Trump’s strategy of peace through strength.

David McCormick is a U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.