Russia Has Significant Vulnerabilities That The West Refuses To Exploit

American and other major intelligence services have known for quite some time how precarious Russia’s finances are. Despite its overwhelming manpower, Russia is on the clock and can’t sustain the current tempo underway indefinitely in its war against Ukraine either materially or economically (and eventually, its men are going to stop accepting their role as cannon fodder). Russia’s economy is 17% oil and gas-based, but its exports of oil and gas are 45% and 36%, respectively. Interrupt those exports or lower the price they receive and Russia can no longer sustain its war.

Since the invasion began, Russia’s oil and gas exports have changed drastically:

Pre-Invasion

Europe was Russia’s largest customer, importing 55% of Russian gas and 50% of crude oil. Russia exported 4.7 million barrels per day of crude oil. Natural gas exports were 8.9 trillion cubic feet, with most going to Europe.

Post-Invasion

European imports have plummeted, with the EU cutting Russian gas purchases by over 90%. Russia has redirected exports to China and India, with China now importing six times more Russian oil than Russia exports to the EU. Seaborne crude oil exports have risen to their highest levels in six months, driven by increased deliveries to Asian markets.

This sounds good—a bigger market—but it isn’t. Instead, it points to Russia’s Achilles’ Heel, which the West has refused to exploit.

Russia needs $70 a barrel to make ends meet, but current pricing is just over $62. Moreover, Russia sells its oil at a discount, lowering the price even further. This is unsustainable without Russia drawing down its limited reserves. Trump is undermining Russia by doing everything in his power to lower energy prices. He does so primarily to support his domestic agenda, but it’s also our most powerful tool to bring Putin to heel.

Russia also has a problem when it comes to delivering its oil. It currently relies on a “ghost fleet,” which refers to a network of aging, unregistered oil tankers used to evade international sanctions to continue exporting Russian crude. There are about 12,300 oil tankers in the world. Bloomberg reports that 265 out of Russia’s 435 shadow fleet tankers are now under sanctions, yet they still moving 57% of Russia’s seaborne crude shipments in 2024. Key characteristics of this ghost or shadow fleet are:

• Frequent Name & Flag Changes—Ships regularly switch identities to bypass sanctions.
• AIS Signal Manipulation—Many vessels turn off their tracking systems to avoid detection.
• Ship-to-Ship Transfers—Oil is often transferred at sea to obscure its origin.
• Lack of Insurance—Many tankers operate without coverage, increasing environmental risks.
• Sanctions Evasion—The fleet enables Russia to sell oil above price caps imposed by the G7 and EU.

That last makes virtually all of those 435 ships immediately eligible for seizure under international law. We know this, Europe knows this, and Russia knows this. How about a not-so-hypothetical question:

What’s stopping us from taking action against ships carrying sanctioned oil, allowing Putin’s war machine to kill a thousand people a day? Nothing but the will to do so.

How long would it be before Russia’s war economy would grind to a halt without markets for its petroleum and natural gas? The answer to that question is interesting. Currently, life in Russia is amazingly normal. Yes, high prices for many consumer items and the unavailability of some things, but in general, ordinary. However, even that normalcy is superficial and vulnerable. Specifically:

Daily Life:

Political Climate:

• Increased Repression—The government has cracked down on dissent, making it dangerous to criticize the war. It is illegal to protest the war in Ukraine. With over one million killed or injured, Russia is finding it increasingly impossible to suppress public perception of the war or the cost in lives:

·      Propaganda and Nationalism—Schools and media have intensified pro-war messaging, shaping public perception.

It’s noteworthy, though, that support for the Russian military remains high, with 78% of citizens backing the armed forces, though opinions vary by region. The repression, propaganda, and nationalism are working…for now.

Military and Government Response:

• Secrecy and Censorship—The Russian government has downplayed casualty figures, restricting independent reporting on military losses and hiding bodies to prevent the scope of the deaths from becoming obvious.
• Expanded Recruitment—To compensate for losses, Russia has relied on mobilization efforts, inducting individuals in their 50s and 60s, including prisoner recruitment and foreign fighters from North Korea and elsewhere.
• Increased Military Pensions—Families of fallen soldiers receive financial compensation, which puts more pressure on the Russian economy.

Social and Economic Impact:

• Strained Healthcare Systems—Hospitals are overwhelmed with wounded soldiers, leading to shortages in medical supplies and personnel.
• Psychological Toll—Reports indicate rising alcohol abuse and mental health struggles among veterans and families of the deceased and wounded.
• Public Discontent-While state propaganda maintains support for the war, some regions have seen protests and frustration over the handling of casualties.

Taken together, Russia is ripe for destabilization, politically or economically, even though propaganda has kept support for the war high and life appears normal. This apparent stability could change in an instant should Russians lose faith in Putin. Putin’s Russia is a house of cards. It could only take a single smack to the collective Russian faithful, and opinions could change overnight.

To understand how quickly the public mood can change, look at Americans’ views about getting involved in the in 1941—a war that had already engulfed Europe for two years.  Before the attack on Pearl Harbor, about 80% of Americans opposed direct involvement, but within days of the attack, support for war rose to over 90%. What changed was perception, not reality. America would enter the war regardless; Germany and Japan knew that, planned for that, and expected it.

WWII was an example of total commitment. Shouldn’t avoiding another world war demand no less than such a commitment from us? Allowing Russia the means to continue a war that could easily suck all of us in is, by definition, against our strategic interests. Where is the bold leadership that denies Russia and its cronies the means to take us over the abyss without doing everything in our power to stop them?

American Thinker” src=”https://images.americanthinker.com/ch/chlqnefyrlkrmg1oyeo9_640.jpg” />

Image created using AI.

Author, Businessman, Thinker, and Strategist. Read more about Allan, his background, and his ideas to create a better tomorrow at www.1plus1equals2.com.