Although last year provided evidence of great improvement, Romania and Bulgaria still need to continue increasing their defense spending to strengthen NATO’s southeastern flank.
Both nations spent over 2% of their gross domestic product—the measure of the total value of goods and services their countries’ produced—on their defense in 2024. Two percent is currently the required amount for NATO members.
This is a positive step in the direction of stronger European security. However, the two countries will need to increase their spending even more to meet new NATO requirements and ensure stability in the region, especially in the wake of the likely call for a new, higher minimum spending number at the NATO summit in The Hague next month.
Regional Importance
Romania and Bulgaria are two of three NATO members on the Black Sea, where Russia keeps its Black Sea Fleet. Significant infrastructure, such as oil and gas pipelines and undersea cables, are located in the Black Sea, making the area important to NATO security. If Russia or another adversary were to take advantage of weak defenses in the region, infrastructure critical to many NATO countries would be disrupted.
Turkey recently discovered a new oil reserve in the Black Sea. The reserve is believed to be 2.6 trillion cubic feet and is located near the maritime border with Bulgaria. This discovery further emphasizes the importance a strong defense in the Black Sea has on NATO’s energy security.
Romania and Bulgaria also have greater land masses, populations, and annual GDPs than almost all their southeastern neighbors and will need to take on more of a leadership role in the region.
Defense Spending in Recent Years
Bulgaria spent 2.18% of GDP and Romania spent 2.25% of GDP on their respective defenses in 2024. For each of them, this is only the second time in the last decade that defense spending reached over 2% of GDP.
Through 2019 to 2023, Bulgaria’s military spending consistently decreased, falling to $7.1 billion during that time.
New defense purchases demonstrate Bulgaria’s resolve to make a significant increase in its defense budget. For instance, the country has invested in F-16s, 8×8 wheeled Infantry Fighting Vehicles, naval vessels, and anti-ship capabilities. The first of 16 F-16s was delivered from Lockheed Martin in January.
Romania missed its defense spending target in 2023 by only spending 1.6% of GDP. It appropriately reacted to this shortcoming by producing its largest defense budget in the last three decades for 2024.
The Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base in Romania is currently undergoing a multibillion-dollar project for expansion and renovation that started in 2024. The project was initiated to deter Russian aggression on the eastern side of NATO. Upon completion, the base will be the largest NATO installation in Europe.
Romania is working on plans to allocate additional funds toward defense spending, including expanding its national defense budget, applying for a designated defense loan from the EU, and passing new legislation. Romania has also revised its national military mobility plan by adding a north-south corridor linking Romania to the Balkans and a new Danube bridge.
The Romanian defense modernization strategy focuses on replacing old equipment with newer systems such as the K9 Thunder artillery gun for the army and the F-35A fighter jet for the air force. The Romanian navy has directed its focus to innovation as well. The modernization strategy is predicted to spur defense industry growth and increased defense spending for the next five years.
Increasing the NATO Minimum
Fortunately for the strength of NATO, most alliance members have raised their defense spending in response to American criticism of their shortfalls and to the deteriorating security environment in Europe.
In 2024, a total of eight members were still under the 2% spending goal. While ideally, all members are above the minimum, this statistic is still an improvement from the 21 members under 2% in 2023. The positive momentum must be maintained.
The most important agenda item for the June 2025 NATO summit in The Hague is increasing the annual defense spending target. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for the spending goal to be raised to 5% of GDP, and others have called for an increase to 3.5%.
Call for Continued Increase
Not only is increased Bulgarian and Romanian spending necessary for burden-sharing within NATO, but it is essential to strengthening the southeastern flank. Black Sea security is relevant for all NATO members, including the U.S., and requires greater defense spending from all member states in the region.
This article was originally published at www.dailysignal.com
