By Michael Bitzer
To say that 2024 has had more than its fair share of political earthquakes is an understatement: two assassination attempts of a presidential candidate alone would garner that designation. But then there’s the first presidential debate, the July 21 reshuffle of the Democratic presidential ticket, and the unreal amount of money flowing into just the presidential campaign alone.
There are political earthquakes, and then there are political asteroids.
The asteroid of 2024’s campaign hit yesterday (Thursday, Sept. 19) in the form of a CNN report detailing allegations against North Carolina’s Republican lieutenant governor, and gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson.
Within the kudzu network of #NCpol, it was long suspected that damaging information would be forthcoming throughout Robinson’s campaign. And we usually think of the “October surprise” as something that shakes the electoral landscape right before November.
But this was a September surprise, and the asteroid’s impact on the ground in the Old North State is likely to leave some major fallout moving through the next six weeks of the campaign.
I’ll let others digest and speculate where the fallout does the most damage, but one question that I got repeatedly yesterday from a variety of inquiries was, “how could someone like Mark Robinson attain this candidacy?”
For many readers of this blog, you know that I’m a data nerd: I look for patterns, trends, and understanding in the basic numbers and facts of trying to comprehend this state’s politics.
And my answer points to two data points to better understand the dynamic of Robinson’s rise in the politics of the right.
First, a quick explanation about political parties, because it has a real relevancy to the data. For most political scientists, we develop ‘theories’ of trying to explain how our political world operates and the various components of that political world.
When it comes to thinking about and understanding political parties, I resort to the classic definition by V.O. Key: parties are a triangle made up of ‘parties in the electorate,’ ‘parties as an organization,’ and finally ‘parties in government.’
The parties in government represents the elected officials of that party, while the party as an organization represents the folks on the ground-level (a state party chair, the executive committee, local county party organizations, etc.). The third corner of the triangle–and most critical for this discussion–is the party in the electorate, or the voters of the Republican Party.
Within the modern Republican Party (post-2015), the influence and impact of Trump and his brand of politics cannot be understated. In fact, thanks to his candidacy and election, the eventual take-over of the Republican Party by Trumpism is a clear fact.
But that candidacy had to start at the grassroots, with the voters. And two data points show the influence of the Trump GOP in the overall Republican electorate.
First, the 2022 Republican primary for the U.S. Senate, a contest between Ted Budd (the eventual winner and U.S. Senator), Mark Walker, and Pat McCrory*.
From the start, it was clear that Budd and Walker were vying for what is commonly referred to as the “Trump lane” of the Republican Party. They both actively sought his endorsement, with Budd the eventual winner. But Walker continued to stress his close connection and fidelity to Trump. McCrory sought to represent himself as a conservative Republican, but one not necessarily tied to Trumpism.
In the end, the Republican voters spoke:
While there were several other candidates, the top four are listed above.
The key dynamic at play: Budd’s nearly 59 percent of the vote, combined with Walker’s 9 percent of the vote, tells me that the “Trump lane” GOP primary voters were well over two-thirds of the Republican primary vote. McCrory garnered a quarter of the vote.
The second data point: this year’s Republican gubernatorial primary, between Robinson, state treasurer Dale Folwell, and attorney Bill Graham.
Yet again, this race had a clear Trump vs. non-Trump dimension to it, namely Robinson as the anointed Trump candidate, with Folwell and Graham both arguing that if Robinson was nominated, it would be a disaster for the fall campaign and election.
Yet again, the Republican voters spoke loud & clear:
Robinson garners nearly two-thirds of the Republican vote, while Folwell and Graham represent a combined third of the GOP primary vote. In that same primary election, Trump got 75 percent of the Republican vote, while Nikki Haley saw a quarter of the vote.
Two elections, two data trends: at least 2/3 of the Republican Party in the electorate are Trumpist. Candidates–those from the party as an organization–recognized the shift in the NC GOP over time, and those espousing the Trump brand of Republicanism were rewarded with becoming a member of the party in government.
Granted, not all Republicans are Trumpian, but in today’s world and GOP, it’s best to be on the side of Trump than not.
One other data point that exemplifies the control of the Trump majority in the NC Republican Party. When he voted to find former president Trump guilty in the second impeachment trial, U.S. Senator Richard Burr (a member of the GOP in government) was formally censured by the NC Republican Party (party as an organization).
To rebuke the senior senator of their own party shows the dominate position Trumpism has in the NC Republican Party within the organizational and governmental aspects of a political party.
What the fallout from the political asteroid will be, only November 5th will tell us. But some asteroids can be described as ‘planet killers’ for the damage they do. We’ll have to wait and see what the damage–candidate-destruction or beyond–will be for this news.
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In full disclosure: Pat McCrory and Bill Graham are graduates of Catawba College, my home institution. I had no connection nor work with either campaign.
Dr. Michael Bitzer holds the Leonard Chair of Political Science and is the incoming director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College, where he is a professor of politics & history. He is on various social media platforms at some variation of @BowTiePolitics.
This article was originally published at www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com
