By Michael Bitzer and Christopher Cooper
Let’s get the caveats out of the way early–we think that analyzing patterns in early voting data are important. They’re important for telling us the method people are using to cast their votes. They’re important to give us an early sense of whether we’re seeing changes in the normal patterns we see. They’re important (in this case) to let us understand how the devestation of Helene might (or might not) be affecting voting patterns. And they’re important for reminding us how open and transparent our election system is in North Carolina.
Notice that we didn’t say that they’re important because they help us forecast the outcomes. That’s because they’re not. The problem with using these data to forecast winners and losers is that we are missing the election day vote, which will be a substantial proportion of the overall vote. Using early voting data to predict election outcomes would be like deciding that you can predict the outcome of a baseball game in the bottom of the 6th. We still have three more innings to go and anything can happen.
With that out of the way, here are six important storylines worth highlighting after early voting.
1. Overall Turnout Numbers Look Good
More than 4.4 million people have had their votes accepted in North Carolina through the end of the early voting period–that’s about 57 percent of the registered voters in the state. As you can see in the figure below, the vast majority (~95%) of the votes thus far have been in person. The figure also illustrates that early voting started strong and faded a bit as the early voting period progressed.
2. A New Election, A New Early Voting Electorate
Two partisan patterns have defined early voting in North Carolina in previous years : (1) Democrats make up a larger share of the early voting electorate than Republicans and (2) Both Democrats and Republicans dwarf Unaffiliated voters. See the graph below for some visual evidence.
Among absentee by mail early ballots, registered Democrats became the plurality of voters using that method in 2018:
On Election Day, however, registered Republicans have been the plurality of voters since 2018’s election:
When it comes to 2024’s early voting (combining both the mail-in and the in-person through November 2), we see something not evident in any prior year in North Carolina: a three-way tie.
As you can see in the graph below, the Unaffiliated surge came late in the early voting period. As we have discussed in this blog, in an academic journal article, and as Chris talked about in his new book, Anatomy of a Purple State, Unaffiliated voters have been the largest group of registered voters in North Carolina for over a year. Now, they are the largest group of early voters as well. Perhaps we are in a new partisan era in North Carolina.
3. But all Counties Aren’t the Same
In 74 of North Carolina’s 100 counties, Republican turnout rates (votes/registered voters) exceeded Democratic turnout rates. That’s important. But it also obscures some important stories.
Consider these 10 counties. Republican turnout rates outperformed Democratic turnout rates by the largest amounts in Stanley (R+10), Yadkin (R+10), Columbus (R+10), Randolph (R+10), and Pender (R+10) Counties. In Buncombe (D+10), Gates (D+9), Orange (D+9), Transylvania (D+5) Durham (D+5) the ones where Democratic turnout rates exceeded Republican turnout rates by the largest amount.
Buncombe County Democratic turnout is potentially interesting for two reasons. First, it may indicate a different partisan effect in the Counties. Second, it may portend a positive signal for Democrats in NC-115, one of the small number of competitive North Carolina House races.
Of course, anything can happen on election day (as we noted at the outset), but the fact that Buncombe is bucking the trend is, perhaps, notable.
4. Older Voters Started Strong, but Younger Voters Made Up At The End
At the beginning of the in-person early voting, Boomers were booming with early ballots: after only two days of casting ballots, those between 60 and 79 years old were 47 percent. If you combined Boomers with the Silent generation (those 80 years and older), they made up 55 percent of the initial wave of early voters. Conversely, those under 43 years old–namely Millennials and Generation Z–were only twenty percent of the early votes.
But after the seventeen days of in-person early voting, younger voters shifted the generational composition considerably, thanks to their increasing presence in the last five days.
The shift made the final numbers of early ballots as 42 percent Boomers & Silent, 32 percent Millennials and Gen Z, and 26 percent Generation X.
Again, we’ll need to see what the Election Day electorate brings to the equation, but how the overall electorate looks may help us better understand the final results. And that is the dynamic of turnout.
5. Helene Has Not Depressed Turnout Yet–in the Aggregate
When Hurricane Helene ravaged 13 counties in Western North Carolina, many questioned whether it might depress voter turnout in those counties. After all, even the most consistent, dedicated voter may neglect to vote if they don’t have potable water.
And, that still might happen.
But, at least through the early voting period, voter turnout in the Helene 13 were matching–or even slightly exceeding turnout in the rest of the state. Approximately 58.3 percent of registered voters in the Helene 13 have cast a ballot, as compared to 56.9 percent in the rest of the state.
At least thus far, it’s a good news story.
But, overall turnout is only one way to look at potential Helene effects. When we examine patterns by partisanship, we see that Democrats appear to be mobilized much more so than Republican in the population center of Buncombe County (remember, this is turnout rate, not raw turnout numbers). Democrats in Transylvania County are also outperforming Democrats statewide. If you add voters in all 13 Helene counties, it appears that, at this stage, the Republican vote is down in the Helene 13, whereas the Democratic vote is up.
Whether this is because Republican areas of the Helene 13 were most devestated by the storm, because Democrats are mobilizing voters better, or because Republicans are waiting until election day remains to be seen.
6. Elections Are All About Turnout, Turnout, Turnout
Who shows up to vote is the crucial question in understanding elections, and this year is no different. And yet, one of the real questions going into Tuesday’s final voting will be, how do each group within the electorate vote?
So far, 56 percent of North Carolina’s 7.8 million registered voters have banked their ballots and are done, just waiting for the results. And we can calculate what the turnout rates are so far for various groups:
It’s not surprising that registered partisans–Republicans and Democrats–having a higher-than-state turnout rate, with Unaffiliateds just over fifty percent. But to note the national trend that is happening in North Carolina: women are nearly at 60 percent turnout rate, with the ‘urban suburbs’ region of the state (those areas inside an urban county but outside the major city limits) also at 60 percent.
Ultimately, if North Carolina were to see another 1.4 million voters on Election Day, we’d hit 2020’s 5.5 million actual votes cast, making the election a 71 percent overall turnout rate for the state. However, if the state wanted to tie 2020’s three-quarters of all registered voters casting a ballot, we would need 1.75 million votes cast on Election Day to reach that goal.
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Dr. Michael Bitzer holds the Leonard Chair of Political Science and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College. Chris Cooper is Madison Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs and Director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University.
This article was originally published at www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com
