House lawmakers will return to Washington, D.C., after a lengthy recess and the 2024 election on Tuesday, with a lengthy list of tasks to accomplish before the new Congress arrives in January.
High on the list of priorities include the never-ending battle over government spending, which has been kicked down the road multiple times this Congress through stop-gap resolutions. While Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has vowed to avoid a Christmas omnibus spending package, a razor-thin majority and Republican Party infighting may make it harder to keep that promise.
Other agenda items include a farm bill, as the 2018 version is set to expire in December, disaster relief funding in the wake of hurricanes across the east coast, and funding for the Veterans Affairs Department.
Election season is also far from over as both parties prepare to hold leadership elections. Republicans are on track to keep their majority in the House, and the GOP won back the Senate, setting up a leadership shake-up not seen in nearly 20 years.
1. Lame-duck spending comes to a head
The GOP-controlled House narrowly avoided a government shutdown in September after two weeks of Republican infighting over a continuing resolution. The chamber passed a short-term spending bill to keep the government open through the week before Christmas.
The House has passed five appropriations bills, so they have until Dec. 20 to pass the remaining seven. The Senate has passed zero, meaning that both chambers would have to negotiate all 12 bills again to send them to the White House for President Joe Biden’s signature.
There have been five continuing resolutions passed by this Congress since fiscal 2024 began in October 2023. So, it is unlikely that the Republican-led House and Democrat-led Senate will come to agreements on a flurry of individual bills by December.
If Republicans maintain their majority in the House, the party will have a trifecta beginning next year after President-elect Donald Trump won the presidential election and the GOP flipped the Senate this week. Republicans could look to another stop-gap bill and punt big spending decisions until next year when they would potentially have the votes to enact their agenda.
On the other side, Democrats will be looking to squeeze as much as possible into the appropriations bills before they fade into the minority.
2. Leadership elections could spell history-making for Democrats and power shifts for GOP
House Republicans will hold their leadership elections on Nov. 13 to elect, or reelect, their slate of top GOP leaders. Most of the positions appear to be unchallenged heading into next week, with many in leadership angling for another term.
Johnson sent out a letter to his GOP colleagues, letting them know he would seek another term with the speaker’s gavel. So far, no one has risen to challenge him, signaling the infighting and drama surrounding Johnson’s speakership might have come to an end.
To win another term, Johnson needs to firm up support within his right flank, who has made his tenure as top House leader strenuous at best to pass legislation with a three-seat majority. At least two House Republicans, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) have vowed not to support a future speakership bid from Johnson.
Johnson did receive a boost from Trump’s endorsement of him over the last few months, which could keep hard-line conservatives from seeking a repeat of last year’s historic ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. But, if Republicans have a narrow majority next Congress, losing a handful of supporters could put the House on a trajectory for another multi-round speaker’s election.
Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) are seeking another term in their respective positions, as is House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY). The only competitive election as of now is for GOP policy chairman, with current Chair Rep. Gary Palmer (R-AL) facing a challenge from Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), who chairs the Republican Study Committee.
On the Democratic side, leadership elections are set for Nov. 19 and 20. Several sources told the Washington Examiner that there are currently no plans for members to challenge the current leadership.
If Democrats end up flipping the House when the final 2024 toss-up races are called, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) would be on track to be the first black speaker of the House. In that case, Majority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) would likely ascend to majority leader, Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-CA) would become majority whip, and Caucus Vice Chair Ted Lieu (D-CA) would succeed Aguilar as chairman. Assistant Leader Joe Neguse (D-CO) is tapped to run for assistant speaker.
If Lieu becomes chairman of the Democratic Caucus, the Washington Examiner confirmed that Reps. Sara Jacobs (D-CA) and Robin Kelly (D-IL) would throw their hats in the ring for vice chair.
3. Farm bill remains a top priority
Before the House entered October recess, 140 House Republicans signed a letter to Johnson asking him to kickstart farm bill discussions before the end of the year. The lawmakers argued that the farm bill should be among “the top priorities” of Republicans and that a one-year stopgap spending bill would fail to remedy long-term problems of the legislation that expires at the end of the year.
“Farmers and ranchers do not have the luxury of waiting until the next Congress for the enactment of an effective farm bill,” the members wrote.
The Washington Examiner confirmed with the speaker’s office that the farm bill will be among Republicans’ priorities when the session begins.
Both chambers blame the other for the delays in any movement on the farm bill. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), who won a competitive reelection to the House this week, blamed the Democratic-controlled Senate for the lack of a farm bill, per WisPolitics. The full House has not voted on the farm bill, but the legislation was approved by the committee.
“If something’s not done by Jan. 1, we revert back to permanent law, and it’s going to have a devastating effect on our agriculture industry,” Van Orden told the outlet. “And the … first one on the firing line is the dairy industry, and I’m unwilling to allow the dairy industry to fail in the state of Wisconsin and the country.”
On the Senate side, retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) said passing a farm bill is one of her top priorities before she leaves Capitol Hill. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) won the competitive Senate race to replace the longtime senator, who opted not to seek reelection.
“We’ve always been able to keep partisan politics out of this process, but it’s getting harder and harder,” Stabenow, who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee, said during the CNN-Politico Grill at the Democratic National Convention in August. “I’m doing everything I can before the end of the year. I put forward my own bill, section by section.”
Both Stabenow and ranking member Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) have laid out their own frameworks for the farm bill, and the Michigan senator argued the House’s version gives the Midwest the “short end of the stick.”
“Farmers need a farm bill,” Stabenow said on the urgency to finish the legislation. “Families need a farm bill.”
With Stabenow’s retirement and the GOP taking the Senate majority, Boozman would lead Senate Agriculture next Congress. On the Democratic side, the committee’s ranking member would likely be Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) as Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who holds the most seniority on the committee, lost reelection to Republican Bernie Moreno.
4. Disaster and FEMA funding on the table after devastating hurricane season
After Hurricanes Milton and Helene caused significant damage to states along the East Coast, including Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, congressional leaders faced pressure to call lawmakers back to Capitol Hill during recess to pass additional disaster relief.
Johnson said it would be “premature” to do so and that FEMA would need “a number of weeks to be able to fully even access” the damage caused by the hurricanes. According to Moody Analytics, the devastation wrought by Helene could cost upwards of $34 billion.
Under the stopgap spending bill passed in September, FEMA could draw from roughly $20 billion beginning Oct. 1. However, the agency said that a significant portion of that money is already gone due to the level of damages. Both parties have released legislation in the aftermath of the hurricanes for additional disaster aid: a $15 billion proposal from Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) and a $20 billion proposal from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).
The Small Business Administration’s disaster loan program has also exhausted all of its funds, with officials arguing that it will need about $1.6 billion. Johnson promised the funds would be replenished when lawmakers return to the House for session.
5. Veterans Affairs hopes to see $12 billion request approved after spending deal ignored funds
Part of the reason the stopgap spending bill was necessary was because the Department of Veterans Affairs warned Congress it was short about $3 billion of what it needed for veterans’ benefit payments and that they may be disrupted without congressional action. The continuing resolution passed in September approved the $3 billion but did not include $12 billion in additional requested funds from the department to offset a potential 2025 shortfall in the medical budget.
Now, the department hopes its funding request will be a priority for session, but lawmakers have not committed to including the $12 billion request in any government funding bill.
Before the 2024 election, House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) told reporters that extra VA funding would depend on who wins the election.
“Getting $12 billion surprises at the end is probably not very good governance,” Cole said. “I think we’ll sit down and take a look at it. But right now, I think getting out of town as quickly as possible was the right thing to do.”
Republicans have blasted the $12 billion shortfall as “mismanagement” and argued they have unanswered questions about the demand.
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“It has been a battle getting clear information from VA about the [Veterans Health Administration] budget shortfall,” House Veterans Affairs Committee Chairman Mike Bost (R-IL) said at a hearing in September. “I understand that the administration and VA leaders are urging Congress to immediately approve the VHA $12 billion budget shortfall without us asking questions.”
The White House said in a statement following the September CR that excluding VA funding is “creating a risk that the agency would slow hiring and reduce healthcare services to veterans.”
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
