Mao Zedong of China was only partly right when he said that “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.” He should have added that true national power depends on a strong economy to provide the military with the resources necessary to defeat deadly adversaries.
Arguably, Gen. Ulysses Grant was the first modern military commander to understand that economic power wins war. Grant knew that the North in the Civil War had significantly greater economic strength than the South. Grant knew that his armies would win through the constant application of military force against the armies of the South.
Later, in World War II and the Cold War conflict against the Soviet Union, the economic strength of the United States was the critical factor in achieving victory. The U.S. was the arsenal of democracy in both deadly conflicts.
Today, it is no different. The U.S. must have a strong economy to deter, contain, and perhaps even defeat the enemies the nation faces. The U.S. military confronts danger from the existential threat posed by China to the nonexistential but still real threats posed by Russia, Iran, and North Korea. There are also the continued risks associated with Islamist terrorism.
Freedom is not cheap, however.
The U.S. must respond aggressively to the rapid buildup of capable forces on the part of China’s People’s Liberation Army. Only over the past few days has China demonstrated its possession of apparently advanced stealth fighter aircraft. China is deploying its military assets globally, from the waters of the South China Sea to the seas of West Africa. China is a global adversary. But building the forces necessary to address this global threat is expensive. Very much so. In addition, the U.S. faces the necessary challenge of integrating artificial intelligence across all national defense domains.
Fortunately, the economy of the U.S., with a GDP of about $30 trillion, is large enough to fund advanced aircraft, a modern stealthy submarine fleet, AI integration, and space programs to ensure supremacy in that sphere. And large enough to provide the resources necessary for an adequately supplied and manned Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps.
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The additive challenge here is that the U.S. is broadly alone in the struggle against China. The economies of our major allies in Europe are mired in a cycle of entrenched stagnation. While these allies can and must assist American deterrent-defeat power at the margin, at least if they wish to retain U.S. military support, that’s all they can do. Statistics tell the tale. For example, in 2025, U.S. businesses will invest $300 billion or more into developing AI systems. $300 billion is 1% of U.S. GDP. $300 billion would be about 8% of GDP of each of our major allies. Our allies cannot afford that outlay.
It is clear that the first priority of the incoming Trump administration is to pursue clear-eyed economic policies to maintain and accelerate the growth of the U.S. economy. Only a very large and productive American economy can ensure that freedom and democracy prevail over despotism and tyranny.
James Rogan is a former U.S. foreign service officer who later worked in finance and law for 30 years. He writes a daily note on the markets, politics, and society. He can be reached at [email protected]
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
