A Russian tanker damaged the Estlink 2 power cable connecting Estonia and Finland across the Baltic Sea on Christmas Day. This action has significantly disrupted electricity supplies to Estonia. The vessel, Eagle S, did so by deliberately dragging its anchor across the sea floor. Two other cables were damaged in the same incident.
On Dec. 26, Finnish coast guard special forces boarded the Eagle S, detained its crew, and moved the vessel into a Finnish port.
Finland has thus offered a masterclass in how to deal with Russian aggression, Namely, by matching rapid intelligence assessments to proportionate, decisive action. Finland has set an example here by taking less than 24 hours to respond in the only manner that Russia would respect: with counterforce.
This seizure was absolutely necessary. This is the third time in recent months that Russia has attacked undersea cables owned and used by NATO member states. In November, a Chinese tanker used its anchor to damage a communications cable between Germany and Finland. In October 2023, another Chinese vessel damaged a gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland. Signaling unvarnished Western weakness, the ship later returned to a Chinese port unchallenged.
This fits a much broader portfolio of various Russian sabotage and assassination plots against the West, some of which constitute conduct very short of acts of war. Russia is engaged in this malfeasance for two reasons.
First, because it serves Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interest in imposing political, economic costs on the West. As with Putin’s occasionally dangled threats of nuclear war, the intent is to increase the Western hardship that is seen to be associated with continued Western support for Ukraine.
Second, because Russia has thus far got away with doing what it is doing. The Chinese are similarly engaged in these efforts in order to provide support to Russia and test Western resolve in face of so-called greyzone attacks that fall short of acts of war. But it is precisely that “testing” intent, which underlines why responses like that of Finland are so important. To her credit, the EU’s new foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas offered immediate and unconditional support to Finland for its seizure. This stands in contrast to the dithering weakness that Kallas’s predecessor Josep Borrell showed in similar situations.
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Of note, the Kremlin has been caught red-handed and has decided to back down in face of Finnish resolve. That point deserves emphasizing: The Russians have decided to back down in face of Finnish resolve. This is very important. Putin understands that he lacks the conventional and nuclear forces means to succeed in a direct military confrontation with NATO. While he might get some weaker minds to dance to his nuclear threat waltz, Putin is ultimately an ambitious but rational imperialist. He is not a lunatic. Where he finds restraint, Putin’s malicious behavior can be deterred.
The world should take example from Finland. In face of blatant Russian aggression the appropriate response is not to dither in ad infinitum national security council meetings or issue diplomatic ripostes. Instead, it is to respond with decisive action of a manner and intent that leaves the Kremlin with no doubt that it has overplayed its hand.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
