As there often is among people in their 20s, a gap is growing within Generation Z regarding experience and preference. Their political divergence is a growing factor that holds implications for the future of marriage.
Most indicators suggest that the long-standing decline of marriage will continue — cultural trends certainly point in that direction. The growing rates of sexlessness among young men and women further dampen the prospects for marriage. It’s a bleak outlook, but there may be a glimmer of hope for change. A segment of Gen Z could be poised to buck the trend. According to a recent Yale Youth Poll, Americans aged 18 to 21 now lean Republican by 12 points, while those aged 22 to 29 lean Democratic by 6. As this younger, more conservative group matures, their values may steer them toward marriage and family life.
Major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of digital technology have created distinct fault lines within Gen Z. Those on the younger end were just entering high school when lockdowns began, while older members were navigating college or launching early careers. These contrasting experiences disrupted the usual milestones of adolescence and young adulthood, fracturing what might have otherwise been a shared generational arc. Even before the pandemic, the smartphone revolution had already reshaped Gen Z’s social norms and expectations. Older Gen Zers may still recall a world before constant connectivity — some even used flip phones — while their younger peers have known nothing but digital immersion. These divides make Gen Z unusually difficult to categorize. But for the younger cohort, there’s a growing restlessness — a yearning for something more grounded. For some, that might mean finding meaning in the stability of family life.
At present, the Trump administration is busy orienting itself in that direction. A New York Times piece examining the matter notes, “The behind-the-scenes discussions about family policy suggest Mr. Trump is quietly building an ambitious plan to promote the issue.” It’s true: The biggest, or loudest, concern is the birth rate, but we see it on a spectrum. From administration officials, such as Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Vice President JD Vance, highlighting marriage and family life, to inquiries into fertility health, to Trump’s explicit calls (good or bad) for a “baby boom” and in vitro fertilization, the GOP is positioning itself to present the family issue as a major policy realm.
For its part, the younger Gen Z crowd seems well convinced. The Harvard Youth Poll from this spring charts the importance of typical life milestones to Gen Z. When it comes to marriage, 57% rank it as important to them, and 67% hold the more vague “find a long-term romantic partner” as an important goal. The importance of having children sits at a modest 48% of Gen Z members. When they are asked about their confidence in achieving these things, the results all drop a couple of percentage points. What’s more, the poll reports that Republicans “express greater confidence than Democrats in reaching each of the six milestones.”
GENDER AND THE POLITICS OF GENERATION Z
We have yet to see how their ambitions materialize. But, if the younger members of Gen Z dominate the Republican-identifying portion of the generation, they are the ones headed for marriage and family with both more interest and more confidence, and probably more zeal. Still, figures such as Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk poll highly unfavorably in the Harvard sampling. So, too, for every other popular media figure, except likable comedian and podcaster Theo Von. Part of this outcome has to do with consumption and bias, and as such, doesn’t matter much. Yet, part of it bodes surprisingly well: If the youngest adults like the Republican Party but increasingly dislike Trump, Musk, and others, they might be headed in just the right direction.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
