“We are not daunted. We will not be deterred. We will speak in defense of our national interests.” These words from South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s February 6 State of a Nation Address illustrate Pretoria’s defiance in a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.
His country is at the center of global controversy: accused of human rights violations by the Trump administration, leading a genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), defending Russia, strengthening ties with China, and reportedly taking Iranian money.
The big question: what actually guides South Africa’s foreign policy? Conviction, strategy, or cold, hard cash?
The United States of America: A break with the West?
South Africa insists it is a non-aligned democracy, yet its actions suggest otherwise. Particularly in its decision to partner with Iranian and Qatari-funded legal teams to prosecute Israel at the ICJ – drawing ire from Washington.
“When you side with terrorists at an international body also used by dictatorships and tyrannies to target the US and deflect attention from their own misdeeds, you’re not a moral superpower. You’re on the wrong side of morality,” says Joel Pollak, a South African-American senior editor at the conservative-leaning media outlet Breitbart News.
Meanwhile, US-South Africa tensions are escalating. President Donald Trump has threatened to cut aid, citing land reform policies denounced as “racist” by white farmers and the White House. He has also slapped new tariffs on Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – the BRICS nations – warning them against ditching the US dollar – rattling investors.
“There are American investors who are very unhappy with what South Africa is doing, which affects not just land but all property rights,” notes Pollak, who is also poised to become Trump’s new envoy to the African country. Pretoria may also risk losing access to its trade benefits under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act, which drives billions into its economy.
South Africa’s drift toward China and Russia is further alienating Washington. Still, South Africa remains America’s largest trading partner on the continent. Pollak warns that warming up to anti-Western states could jeopardize that.
“The US wouldn’t notice if trade with South Africa disappeared. It does not need rare earth minerals anymore from them when it has begun discovering them at home.”
Islamic Republic of Iran: ally or puppet master?
South Africa didn’t have to look far for another ally – Iran came to them. Vuyolwethu Mkhuseli Xulu, a South African social science strategist and ANC member, explains: “Iran has been seeking legitimacy. Even among Arab nations, it’s an outlier. South Africa, with its Mandela legacy, gives it credibility.”
Pretoria’s growing relations with Iran are transparent: it praises Tehran for supporting its ICJ case, condemns Israeli strikes on Iran, and ignores its military and nuclear expansion.
Behind closed doors, Iran’s influence runs even deeper. “A lot of business dealings are happening between South Africa and Iran, who many see for its historic opposition to Apartheid’s Western backers. However, reveals Xulu, “many ANC constituents aren’t even aware of these deals because they have become a top-down transaction.”
Considering South Africa’s crippling energy crisis, oil-centric Tehran should be an obvious trade partner – but Xulu highlights contradictions here as well. “We thought closer ties with Iran were about energy security, but we’re not investing in green energy. Iran’s crude oil doesn’t align with our government’s supposed push for sustainability.”
For him, the real motive is ANC survival. “The party is being opportunistic. They need capital,” he says, pointing to the significant loss of its outright majority, for the first time since the fall of Apartheid, now ruling only through a coalition. “They know they are losing support even from within the movement.”
“There was a huge internal fight over the ICJ case and our assumed neutrality” posits Xulu, who is also a research fellow at ISGAP, which exposed Iranian and Qatari funding behind the court’s probe. He notes the hypocrisy of his party “who once distrusted these institutions, now championing them” but maintains that it is a double-edged sword as “ANC leaders are now suspending or removing members who push back.”
People’s Republic of China: a misunderstood relationship?
Contrary to popular belief, China’s relationship with South Africa goes beyond economics. Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of The China-Global South Project, argues: “There’s nothing exceptional about South Africa’s ties with China that prioritizes business over politics. In fact, the ANC and the Chinese Communist Party have one of the strongest party-to-party relationships in Africa.”
This diplomatic viewpoint was on display when Beijing not only supported Pretoria’s ICJ case against Israel but also urged a condemnation of its “occupation” of Palestinian territories. Although it reinforced a shared anti-Western stance, it clashed with South Africa’s democratic model.
As Olander puts it: “South Africa backs China’s position not because it agrees, but because siding with Beijing costs them nothing politically while winning favor with a UN Security Council power.” Beijing, in turn, uses these alliances to reshape the current world order, offering governing alternatives to Western-led institutions like the World Bank and the IMF through BRICS, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
Still, China dominates South Africa’s trade, which accounts for 20% of Beijing’s total trade with the continent.
However, unlike poorer African nations, Pretoria is not dependent on Chinese loans. “South Africa doesn’t receive much infrastructure financing nor does it borrow from China – it has other ways to access capital,” says Olander.
Pretoria’s edging closer to the Russia-China-Iran axis may appear threatening to Washington. While it could benefit “enormously” from other African nations, “severing ties with the US would cause unspeakable economic damage, but South Africa’s political standing in the Global South would surge.”
Russian Federation: a historic bond or political roulette?
South Africa’s relations with Russia trace back to the Soviet Union’s support for the ANC’s liberation struggle. That historic loyalty lingers, but as Steven Gruzd, head of the Russia-Africa Project at the South African Institute of International Affairs notes: “Russia today is not the Soviet Union, but many ANC members studied there, and those fond memories endure.”
Pretoria’s pro-Russian stance is apparent as it refuses to impose sanctions, conducts joint naval drills, abstains on UN Ukraine votes, and parrots Moscow’s NATO proxy war narrative. “Ramaphosa has repeatedly framed Ukraine as a Western-engineered war aimed at undermining Russia. This is in line with Moscow, yet challenges South Africa’s supposed neutrality,” says Gruzd.
Unlike its trade surplus with America, South Africa runs a deficit with Russia, which is pushing its own currency in BRICS as a challenge to US hegemony. While Pretoria echoes Moscow’s anti-West rhetoric, Gruzd warns that its lack of economic clout and desperate attempts to balance conflicting alliances, means it remains solely as another pawn on Russia’s global chessboard.
Who or what is really driving?
All four experts agree on South Africa’s foreign policy leanings. It is not binary but rather a mixture of principle, pragmatism, and pay-to-play – no different from any other member of the G20 or, more broadly, any other nation in the international community, they argue.
However, US patience is wearing thin, and Pretoria may soon face a reckoning: ideology or economic survival?For Israel, South Africa is no longer merely a critic – it has become a legal adversary on the world stage. Whether Pretoria’s balancing act will secure its long-term interests or lead to isolation remains to be seen.
This article was originally published at www.jpost.com
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