The days of the United States being the world’s police force are over — and good riddance. The idealist’s vision of a U.S.-enforced rules-based international order, noble as it might have been once, was never firmly rooted in reality. Perpetual global instability meant perpetual military interventions, and even America’s vaunted military might has limits. In a world teeming with nukes, bioweapons, and whatever horrors the AI race might yield, the idea of the U.S. single-handedly enforcing a global order is not only unworkable but dangerously naive.
Indeed, nations that do not share the West’s esteem for liberal democracy, economic openness, or “human rights” as defined by the United Nations were never going to be persuaded or coerced into aligning with an American-centric global order. The further we get from the Bush era’s preemptive wars, the more they appear driven by utopian delusion.
The failure of the rules-based international order has given way to a new era of geopolitical realism. Allies are beginning to take their own defense obligations more seriously and stepping up to share the burden of regional stability. America is placing sensible limits on its international commitments. Regional powers are expanding their influence to counterbalance threats.
But while Americans have understandably developed a distaste for military conflict, the use of military force must not be viewed as intrinsically undesirable. There will always be times when fighting is the best and perhaps only option available to securing our vital interests. The guiding question for such a decision should not be whether fighting helps democratize the world, as it has been for much of this century, but whether it’s good for us — we have neither the capacity nor the will to go beyond this. While this reality reduces the potential reasons for war, it does not eliminate the need altogether.
One conflict that will challenge leaders under this new criteria for military involvement is the defense of Taiwan against Chinese aggression, an encounter that seems to be increasingly likely by the day. Admiral Samuel J. Paparo, Commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently told the Senate Armed Services Committee that China is actively preparing to achieve “reunification” with Taiwan, saying their “aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan are not just exercises — they are dress rehearsals for forced unification. [China] escalated military pressure against Taiwan by 300% in 2024.” Additionally, the annual Preventive Priorities Survey published by the Council on Foreign Relations finds that a security crisis in the Taiwan Strait is “moderately likely” in 2025.
Going to war with China is, to be sure, a terrible possibility. But Chinese control of Taiwan could be even worse for the U.S.. Taiwan is an economic powerhouse in the world’s most consequential economic region, the producer of 92% of the world’s advanced chips critical for smartphones, computers, AI systems, and military hardware. With Taiwan under its thumb, China would control the semiconductor supply chain, setting back U.S. innovation, damaging the U.S. economy, and limiting its defense capabilities. Control of Taiwan, which sits at the heart of the crucial first island chain just off the Chinese coastline, would also give China influence over the major shipping routes in a region that is slated to account for 60% of the global GDP by 2030. And it would enable their navy to operate beyond the first island chain and break out into the Pacific, potentially threatening U.S. bases in Guam and Hawaii.
Failing to defend the island could also unravel critical alliances in the region, such as with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and even Australia, all of which rely upon U.S. credibility for their own defenses. Should the U.S. fold over Taiwan, these countries will have a strong incentive to cut a deal with Beijing, perhaps signing non-aggression pacts and deepening economic ties, which would shift the global economic gravity toward Beijing, thereby reshaping global power dynamics.
AS NAVY PRIORITIZES MIDDLE EAST, CHINA ENCIRCLES TAIWAN
To be certain, a war between the U.S. and China would be disastrous for both nations, the region, and the world. The U.S. should take every possible measure to deter a Chinese incursion in Taiwan and use every ounce of diplomacy to bring about a peaceful resolution. However, it remains possible that, despite recent efforts to boost deterrence with the House Armed Services Committee’s proposal of an extra $150 billion in defense spending, efforts to deter China in this window of time are too little, too late. And there is also the chance that our already strained diplomatic relations with Beijing, exacerbated by the trade war, will not be able to prevent a conflict.
That will leave the U.S. with a terrible decision, one that must be made not according to ideological doctrines, but according to self-interest. And we may have no other choice but to fight.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
