Making the case for each CFP semifinal team to win the national championship

The College Football Playoff is back to a familiar spot: four teams with two spots in the national championship on the line.

Notre Dame will face Penn State on Jan. 9 in the Orange Bowl. The Fighting Irish put together a dominant defensive performance in their 23-10 victory over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, while the Nittany Lions held Ashton Jeanty in check en route to defeating Boise State, 31-14, in the Fiesta Bowl.

In the other CFP semifinal matchup, Ohio State will take on Texas on Jan. 10 in the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes cruised past Oregon, 41-21, in the Rose Bowl, while the Longhorns needed double overtime to get past a scrappy Arizona State team in the Peach Bowl, 39-31.

FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, RJ Young and Michael Cohen are here to preview the CFP semifinal round and make the case for why each remaining team can win a national championship.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (13-1)

Why the Fighting Irish will win the national title: The only team to beat the Fighting Irish this season is Mid-American Conference and Group of 5 member Northern Illinois, and the Huskies performed that feat at Notre Dame Stadium. But how?

The Huskies outgained Notre Dame in passing yards (198 to 163), rushing yards (190 to 123), time of possession (34:38 to 25:22) and third-down opportunities (16 to 9), while also forcing two turnovers and committing none themselves, and sacking quarterback Riley Leonard twice and allowing zero sacks.

Seemingly, the only way the Huskies could win against a top-five opponent like Notre Dame is perhaps the only way the Fighting Irish can lose in the CFP this season. The Fighting Irish held Indiana to 63 rushing yards on 27 carries in their 27-17 win over the Hoosiers in the first round, and then followed that up by holding Georgia to just 66 yards on 29 carries, an average of 2.1 yards per rush. Notre Dame rushed for 193 and 154 against their CFP opponents, respectively, and turned the ball over just once.

Expect Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price to receive heavy workloads carrying the ball while offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock sets quarterback Riley Leonard up with smart play-action and sprint-out concepts for short and medium throws to receivers Beaux Collins, Jordan Faison, Jaden Greathouse and Mitchell Evans.

Against a team that is built similarly to itself in the Orange Bowl, Notre Dame simply has to play the brand of football it has all year when it’s at its peak — run-oriented, defensively dominant, clock-chomping man-ball. 

If the Fighting Irish were to beat Penn State and play in the national title game against a team as talented as Texas — with over 90 percent of its roster tabbed as four- or five-star recruits — their style can win if they’re precise and error-free against teams that are just as capable as they are, like those left in the CFP.

Why the Fighting Irish won’t win the national title: Leonard turns into a pumpkin. In a charmed year for the Fighting Irish, who lost to a mediocre G5 program at home, they still found their way into the 12-team CFP and hosted the first home playoff game in the sport’s history. This while Leonard has been the best version of himself with 2,293 passing yards, 751 rushing yards, 32 total touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Unless Penn State knows something the rest of the sport doesn’t, putting Leonard on his back and preventing him from being the rushing threat he has been all season is the best way to stop this team.

X-Factor: Marcus Freeman — who pulled off one of the great special teams plays we’ve ever seen in the CFP with a hockey line change deep into the fourth quarter, pulling the punt team off, sprinting the offense on, forcing Georgia to react and flustering the defense into an offsides penalty that led to a Notre Dame first down and helped secure the victory — all from ND’s own 19-yard line.

That’s a coach making a play. That’s a coach making himself the X-factor in the Sugar Bowl. Let’s see if he can do it again.

National Championship Odds: +390

– RJ Young

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (13-2)

Why the Nittany Lions will win the national title: They’re talented enough. In this sport, possessing a roster that is talented enough to compete at the sharp end of the Big Ten and SEC is the first barrier to pass through for entry into the conversation for winning the whole thing.

With blue-chip recruits who have developed into star players like Drew Allar, Nick Singleton and Abdul Carter, 61 percent of James Franklin’s team is made of four- and five-star players. And they’ve been playing their best brand of football lately.

Why the Nittany Lions won’t win the national title: I have reservations about Allar and the Penn State receivers’ ability to beat all three of the secondaries left in the CFP. Allar has been pedestrian against top-25 opponents this season. Against Illinois, he completed 15 of 21 passes for 135 yards without a touchdown. Against Ohio State this season, he completed 12 of 20 passes for just 146 yards with an interception. Against Oregon, he fared better by completing 20 of 39 passes for 226 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Against SMU, he completed 13 of 22 passes for 127 yards without a touchdown. Against Boise State, he completed 13 of 25 passes for 171 yards with three touchdowns.

Penn State, like Notre Dame, is defensively-led and offensively-supported. The offensive engine of the team is its rushing attack, powered primarily by running backs Kaytron Allen and Singleton. However, against Notre Dame, and then Texas or Ohio State, coaches and coordinators will smartly ask Allar to beat them downfield — a task he has yet to perform against a top-25 team.

X-Factor: Abdul Carter — the best defender on one of the best defenses in the sport. Carter was knocked out of the Fiesta Bowl after a tackle on Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty forced him to the sideline with an injured left shoulder. Carter, who is a player in the same mold as Micah Parsons at PSU, has notched 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks in Tom Allen’s defense and has played inside linebacker and on the edge for the Nittany Lions when healthy. He’s questionable to play in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night, but his presence — or absence — will be felt by both teams.

National Championship Odds: +550

– RJ Young

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (12-2)

Why the Buckeyes will win the national title: Long before the season began, Ohio State was routinely mentioned among the prohibitive national championship favorites thanks to a whirlwind offseason that included the return of numerous veteran starters who bypassed the chance to enter the NFL Draft, the addition of former UCLA head coach Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, a transfer portal haul that featured four of the top 41 players in the country and a freshman class headlined by five-star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2024 cycle. There was little doubt among analysts and fans that the Buckeyes had armed themselves with enough pieces to be considered alongside Georgia and Texas as the sport’s most complete challengers.

Though it took far longer than most people expected for everything to coalesce, Ohio State is unquestionably the hottest team in the College Football Playoff after ransacking Tennessee and Oregon by a combined 45 points in the first two rounds. The intoxicating blend of an aggressive, experienced defense with a high-flying offense that is suddenly quite keen to force-feed its best players has launched the Buckeyes to a level that might be unreachable for fellow semifinalists Texas, Notre Dame and Penn State. It’s difficult to see anyone challenging Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl or beyond if head coach Ryan Day and his staff continue to inspire such ferocity and ruthlessness on both sides of the ball. Put simply, the Buckeyes’ best is far better than everyone else’s ceiling. 

Why the Buckeyes won’t win the national title: Despite how well Ohio State has played through the opening two rounds of the College Football Playoff, there were plenty of questions surrounding the Buckeyes after a regular season that included a road loss to Oregon and a stunning home defeat to Michigan, which precluded Day’s group from reaching the Big Ten Championship game for a fourth consecutive year. Were cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Davison Igbinosun reliable enough to lead Ohio State to a deep playoff run? Would edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau ever live up to the hype that surrounded them as five-star recruits? Could quarterback Will Howard, the Kansas State transfer, deliver in the biggest moments after a mental lapse against Oregon, a pick-six against Penn State and two interceptions against Michigan? How would the offensive line respond after losing left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin to season-ending injuries? What were the chances that Day might succumb to the mountainous pressure he faced after losing to the Wolverines?

To the Buckeyes’ credit, they’ve addressed most of those concerns with well-rounded victories over the Volunteers and Ducks. Day’s team now enters its Cotton Bowl semifinal matchup against Texas ranked No. 1 in the country in total defense (244.6 yards per game), No. 1 in scoring defense (12.1 points per game) and among the top 26 in total offense (432.5 yards per game), scoring offense (36.4 points per game) and red zone touchdown rate (75.9%). There’s plenty to like about the way Ohio State is playing. 

Perhaps the only question remaining is whether the Buckeyes can string together two more performances of the same quality they displayed in the opening two rounds. There were enough warts revealed during the regular season to inspire some legitimate doubt. 

X-Factor: It has to be wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, right? The freshman sensation was the best player on the field in victories over Tennessee and Oregon that propelled Ohio State to the national semifinals. He caught six passes for 103 yards and two scores against the Volunteers before sitting out large portions of the second half once the game was out of hand. And he put on an even more incredible show against the Ducks by exceeding 100 yards before the first quarter expired and finishing with seven receptions for a career-high 187 yards and two scores. Man coverage, zone coverage, single coverage or double coverage — none of it seemed to matter against Smith. He was a 19-year-old man amongst boys, a frightening prospect for the rest of college football. 

The ease with which Smith has eviscerated two quality defenses in this year’s playoffs makes it natural to wonder how he only exceeded 100 yards in a game three times during the regular season: against Western Michigan in September (five catches, 119 yards, 1 TD); against Oregon in October (nine catches, 100 yards, 1 TD); and against Northwestern in November (four catches, 100 yards). What’s even more staggering is that Michigan, Indiana and Penn State limited him to just 124 yards and one touchdown combined. But the idea of someone stopping Smith at this point — now that he’s become the unquestioned focal point of Ohio State’s offense — seems rather unlikely. He’s that much better than everyone else. 

National Championship Odds: -110

– Michael Cohen

TEXAS LONGHORNS (13-2)

Why the Longhorns will win the national title: Texas has had the No. 1 defense in the country for most of this season. The Longhorns are getting penetration and averaging nearly three sacks and more than seven tackles for loss per game. They stop teams on third and fourth down, and they’ve had three goal-line stands in the last four games. In order to first beat Ohio State, the Longhorns have to get pressure on quarterback Will Howard and make him uncomfortable. The veteran QB – who faced Texas back when he was at Kansas State – was incredibly comfortable in the Rose Bowl win over Oregon. Texas should be watching film from the Michigan game where the Wolverines dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. Howard played his worst game of the year that day, passing for a season-low 175 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. 

If the Longhorns can beat the Buckeyes, they’ll have their hands full with either Notre Dame or Penn State, especially when it comes to stopping the run. Fighting Irish QB Riley Leonard is a proven game-wrecker when he gets loose, and the Nittany Lions have the best RB tandem in the country in Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. 

Texas has a national championship-caliber defense – some have said it’s one of the program’s best units ever. If it plays to its full potential, the Longhorns could certainly win two more games.

Why the Longhorns won’t win the national title: At times, Texas’ offense seemed overwhelmed by Arizona State’s smaller defensive front in the Peach Bowl. If the Longhorns can’t match or beat Ohio State on the line of scrimmage and get its running game going early, it’s going to be a long day for Quinn Ewers & Co. Especially considering Ohio State has had 12 sacks in the last two games, including eight vs. Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The same could be said if they reach the national title game vs. Notre Dame or Penn State. We saw how the Irish dominated Georgia on the defensive line and how the Nittany Lions’ defense frustrated Ashton Jeanty. Texas’ O-line has been hit by injuries and while depth is a luxury this Longhorns team has, they’ll need everyone as healthy as possible and that is a lot to ask at this time of year.

To first get by Ohio State, Texas has to figure out a way to contain Jeremiah Smith and OSU’s explosive offense. 

Here’s how Ohio State tight end Gee Scott put the challenge of stopping the Longhorns’ offense this week:

“There’s a lot of components you have to respect all across the field,” Scott said. “When it comes to X’s and O’s, just spacing out the field, being able to cover five guys down the field, it’s kind of hard, including our running backs as well. We can run the ball, we can throw it downfield to Jeremiah, we can hit a checkdown to me or to a running back. I just think it’s the limitless potential that we have and the amount of different things that we can do is where I would see it being a big weapon in our offense.”

X-Factor: Quintrevion Wisner. The sophomore running back leads all Texas rushers this season with 1,018 yards and five touchdowns. He came on in the latter part of the season, especially when he carried the ball 33 times for 186 yards in a critical 17-7 win over Texas A&M in the regular-season finale. He ran the ball well against Clemson, but then was MIA in the Peach Bowl win. Texas only gained 53 total yards on the ground against a Sun Devils defense the Longhorns should have manhandled. Texas’ rushing attack has been up and down all year, but it’s been down in games where it has mattered most. For example, in both losses to Georgia, the Horns put up 29 and 31 rushing yards, respectively. 

To win a national championship, the offensive line will need to control the line of scrimmage and create holes for Wisner and Jaydon Blue to run through so that Texas doesn’t have to rely solely on the passing game.

National Championship Odds: +425

– Laken Litman

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast “The Number One College Football Show.” Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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