National security adviser Mike Waltz and his deputy, Alex Wong, resigned Thursday. Their departure, just 101 days into President Donald Trump‘s second term, provides two key insights into the Trump administration.
First, it shows that Trump continues to have a very low appetite for actions that embarrass him. Second, it suggests that Trump wants a more ideologically natural partner to advise him on day-to-day national security matters.
Waltz is both lucky and a little unlucky here. On the fortune side of the coin, he has been nominated to become the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. That’s a high-profile and public job. It also shows Trump’s great confidence in successfully cajoling senators now that he has nominated the controversial Waltz to this position.
So, why is he controversial?
Waltz created the Signal group chat that was used to discuss strikes on Yemen. He also accidentally added Atlantic Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg to the group chat. The messages in the group chat then leaked, leading to deep embarrassment for the Trump administration. That said, Waltz is a little unlucky to be the fall guy here. After all, it was Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, not Waltz, who transmitted classified information in the group chat. Hegseth also separately created a second Signal group chat in which he shared the same classified information with other individuals, including his wife. Put simply, Hegseth remains very lucky that it is Waltz and not he who is heading out the administration door.
Yet, Waltz’s departure may also reflect the ascendancy of another.
Namely, Trump’s chief diplomatic negotiator, Steve Witkoff. Mark Halperin reported that Witkoff is in the running to replace Waltz. The reporting matches the Washington scuttlebutt that Witkoff’s stock is soaring in the White House. A real estate developer with no foreign policy or national security experience prior to Jan. 20, Witkoff has nevertheless fronted Trump’s second-term foreign policy. He has led negotiations with Israel in relation to hostages held by Hamas, Russia in relation to ending the war in Ukraine, and Iran in relation to a new nuclear agreement.
However, Witkoff sometimes appears out of his depth in these roles. A good example is his engagement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Witkoff has manifestly failed to understand that Putin is a masterful manipulator, not by choice, but by professional KGB Red Banner Institute training. Witkoff has also undermined U.S. moral and strategic credibility via his fawning public meetings with Putin. Witkoff has said Putin is a “great guy,” that the two share a “friendship and relationship,” and has echoed false Russian talking points regarding Ukrainian politics. This highly deferential posture is very poorly suited to Putin’s psyche and his enduring perception of the United States as Russia’s “main enemy.” It also distracts from the hard-headed, practical engagement needed to advance peace in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Trump seems very happy with the job Witkoff is doing. Further evidence of Trump’s favor came with Secretary of State Marco Rubio‘s effusive praise for Witkoff at the White House on Wednesday. There is no question that Rubio’s policy authority and international credibility have been undercut by Witkoff’s high-profile global travels. Rubio’s far more informed foreign policy assessments are also out of kilter with Witkoff’s. However, the former senator also recognizes that playing to, rather than undermining, Trump’s preferences offers a far better path for his continued relevance. This recognition was rewarded by Trump with Rubio’s dual hat appointment as interim national security adviser.
Still, it would pose significant concerns if Witkoff became national security adviser. The foremost problem is that Witkoff’s baseline of foreign policy knowledge is weak. Again, the most evident example of this reality is his sustained inability to perceive Putin’s manipulation. And if Putin can manipulate Witkoff on Ukraine, he can do so elsewhere. You can be sure that the Chinese, Iranians, and North Koreans would attempt to replicate this manipulation.
Another challenge is operational security.
By virtue of the national security adviser’s position, Witkoff would have access to an extraordinary range of the most classified information held by the U.S. government. He would also be responsible for supervising extremely sensitive plans and actions alongside U.S. allies. And he would need to command the trust of the military, intelligence community, and allies in all these efforts.
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The trust required for the effective conduct of this role will not flow naturally with someone who, until three months ago, had never operated in positions proximate to these fields nor understood them. While Trump has occasionally been very shoddy with his handling of classified information, he has also shown a sustained ability to keep many very compelling secrets.
Of course, it is Trump’s sole choice who he decides to replace Waltz with. But if the president goes with Witkoff, the real estate man may soon dance an undesirable political waltz of his own.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
