The NASCAR playoffs take a dramatic turn from the Round of 12 (quarterfinal round) to the Round of 8 (semifinal round).
It is no longer survive and advance. A driver most often needs to either win or come close to winning multiple times.
Joey Logano earned his win Sunday at Las Vegas. And after some struggles at Vegas, four drivers find themselves at least 27 points below the cutoff and needing a great race at Homestead and/or Martinsville or a victory in one of those two events.
Denny Hamlin (27 points behind), Tyler Reddick (minus-30), Ryan Blaney (minus-47) and Chase Elliott (minus-53) either need to win or have great races and good fortune.
“We definitely have to win,” Elliott said. “But honestly, that was my mindset [at Vegas], too. Nothing changes for me.”
NASCAR’s version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races, and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don’t get stage points) crowned the champion.
In each round, the advancing drivers’ point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.
The tracks:
- Opening round: Atlanta (winner-Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner-Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Logano, Larson, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez. Eliminated from playoff contention: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.
- Quarterfinal round: Kansas (winner-Ross Chastain, not a playoff driver), Talladega (winner-Ricky Stenhouse Jr., not a playoff driver), Charlotte (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Byron, Larson, Bell, Blaney, Elliott, Hamlin, Reddick and Logano. Eliminated from playoff contention: Bowman, Cindric, Suarez, Briscoe.
- Semifinal round: Las Vegas (winner-Logano), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval). Advanced: Logano, TBA.
- Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).
Here’s my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot.
1. Christopher Bell (Last Week: 2)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 2nd, +42 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead Finish: 1st
Bell had the strongest car at Las Vegas and just came up short because of fuel mileage. He won at Homestead a year ago and is respectable enough at Martinsville (one win, three top-10s in his career) that he should make it to Phoenix, where we probably don’t have to remind you that he won in the spring.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
2. Kyle Larson (LW: 1)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 3rd, +35 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead Finish: 34th
A poor day on pit road at Vegas can’t get in the head of this team and break its momentum. It shouldn’t, but until they put a flawless race together, there could be questions on whether Vegas was an anomaly or not. Larson has five top-5s in 10 starts at Homestead and six stage wins, so if he wins some stages and has a solid finish, he shouldn’t have to sweat Martinsville.
Prediction: Champion (no change)
3. William Byron (LW: 3)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: 4th, +27 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead Finish: 4th
Byron has finished in the top four in the last four Cup races, but it always seems he’s a spot behind another playoff driver. The good news: Hang out there that long, and there will be days where he is the best of the best. He has a win at Homestead, Martinsville and Phoenix in his career (including at Martinsville in the spring). He’s a threat.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
4. Joey Logano (LW: 8)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: Advanced to Champ 4
2023 Homestead Finish: 8th
Logano knows he will be in the Championship 4, but he also knows that Phoenix has not recently been his best track. He has three wins at Phoenix in his career but was 34th in the spring (where he was involved in a wreck) and 18th a year ago. But go ahead, doubt Logano at your own risk.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
5. Denny Hamlin (LW: 4)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 5th, -27 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead Finish: 30th
This round was supposed to be a good one for Hamlin, but with pit woes and performance that was very good but not as great as earlier this year, it feels as if things are slipping away … again. But he has three career wins at Homestead and five at Martinsville. So a walk-off moment is quite possible.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round (change from making the Championship 4)
6. Chase Elliott (LW: 5)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 8th, -53 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead Finish: 15th
Elliott said he feels he needs to win and that would mean a first for him at Homestead or a second for him at Martinsville. He has just two top-5s in eight Homestead starts. But Martinsville? He has led 1,104 laps there with six stage wins and six top-5 finishes. So don’t expect a career day at Homestead to put him back in the mix in points as there will be hope come Martinsville.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
7. Ryan Blaney (LW: 6)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 7th, -47 on playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead Finish: 2nd
Blaney picked a bad time to have a bad weekend as a punctured tire put him in the wall in practice and then he got collected in a wreck during the Vegas race. He won the elimination race at Martinsville a year ago on the way to capturing the title – and he is going to have to find some of that mojo again.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
8. Tyler Reddick (LW: 7)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: 5th, -30 on the playoff cutoff
2023 Homestead Finish: 3rd
This seems to be a playoffs to forget for Reddick. Yes, he’s great at Homestead with three top-5s in four starts. Martinsville, though, isn’t the most kind track for him (a 19.3 average finish and no laps led). The rut this team seems to be in just might be a little too deep.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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