In less than a week, the odds that Pete Hegseth would be confirmed as secretary of defense dropped to the point that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was expected to replace him, and then rebounded to the point that his most outspoken skeptic, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), gave him a statement of confidence.
The abrupt change in fortunes for Hegseth’s nomination, which last week looked dead in the water, is a testament to the enduring political capital that President-elect Donald Trump has accumulated with his popular and electoral victory last month. However, it is also a testament to the power of outside pressure campaigns from Trump’s allies.
Last week, Ernst made waves when she refused to commit to supporting Hegseth’s nomination. With Republicans poised to have a 53-47 majority in the next Congress with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance as a tiebreaking vote, losing Ernst’s vote would likely have sunk Hegseth’s nomination, given that several other senators more willing to buck the president would have likely joined her.
But now, Ernst is singing a different tune. On Monday, after meeting again with Hegseth, she released a statement that was far friendlier to the nominee.
“As I support Pete through this process, I look forward to a fair hearing based on truth, not anonymous sources,” she said, in a reference to allegations of sexual misconduct and excessive drinking that threatened to derail Hegseth’s nomination.
However, Ernst’s abrupt reversal did not happen in a vacuum. It came after Trump’s allies made clear that they would not look kindly on GOP senators who reject his Cabinet appointees. As one of a number of Republican senators facing reelection campaigns in 2026, Ernst is in a particularly vulnerable position.
In what was effectively a thinly veiled primary challenge threat, Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird published an op-ed that, without naming Ernst or Hegseth, rather poignantly called on the Senate to confirm Trump’s nominees.
“The Constitution gives senators the important responsibility for advice and consent and that’s what the confirmation hearings are for,” Bird wrote. “It’s a chance for nominees to respond to criticism and make their case for why they are the right choice to lead cabinet agencies. What we’re witnessing in Washington right now is a Deep State attempt to undermine the will of the people. We must not let Washington kill nominations before the Constitutional confirmation process even begins.”
But killing nominations before hearings and a floor vote is exactly the goal of the campaigns against Hegseth and other nominees such as Kash Patel, Trump’s FBI director nominee, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee national intelligence director, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
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Forcing Trump to withdraw the nominations before a floor vote avoids putting Republican senators in the difficult position of having to decide whether to publicly vote against the president-elect’s chosen nominee, thus drawing his ire.
However, when the nominees refuse to withdraw, and Trump refuses to withdraw the nominee, pressure builds on the individual senators to back the nomination. As evidenced by the new life breathed into Hegseth’s nomination, that pressure campaign works.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
