One should never feel confident in judging the motives of President Trump in any policy initiative; and this is not an attempt to do so. I merely describe an effect, (which may have been intended, or not) of the ongoing tariff confusion.
Ordinary consumers may fear the unavailability of endless varieties of cheap junk, and convention-goers may miss some of the giveaway swag at their next meeting, but more serious would-be shortages of drugs and parts for manufactured items which might result if there is an interruption of trade with China. However, even the threat of trade interruptions should have awakened most importers to the foolishness of depending on China as the sole source of any necessary item.
There are signs that the trade interruptions feared when Trump announced his tariff initiative will be short-lived. Still any significant businessman dependent on material from China surely has considered making arrangements for alternative sources of supply. Many such substitutions are public knowledge. Perhaps any disruption of China trade from the tariff uncertainty will be short-lived, though with an unpredictable actor like President Trump it could be renewed at any time. But there is another possible crisis on the horizon.
Suppose China invades Taiwan. Some commentators suggest that this is inevitable, and that it will happen soon. This action would be likely to result in cessation of all trade between China and the U.S. — and perhaps other nations — for an unpredictable period. The tariff excitement has caused our industrial planners to seek substitute arrangements; but it has surely also caused Chinese leaders to consider the state of their economy if trade with the West is interrupted for an extended period.
Economic statistics from China are unreliable, and reports of working-class unrest are similarly suspicious, but obviously a total (even if temporary) interruption of trade with America and Europe would produce enormous and unpredictable changes in the Chinese economic and political situation. Potential changes of such magnitude would give any political leader great concern. Perhaps one (unintended?) effect of the tariff proposals will be to give Taiwanese independence a new lease on life.
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