It was a combination of Democratic incompetence and Republican success that won President Donald Trump his way back to the White House. This is what gave him a clean sweep of the swing states, as much in Democrat-leaning Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as in Republican-leaning Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
A lot can change from one election cycle to another, but Republicans could put more swing states on the table next time around thanks to additional GOP successes and more Democratic failures that have begun to emerge in the last year. Each state offers possibilities for future Republican victories.
New Hampshire
Trump lost New Hampshire by under 3 points, a margin of around 33,000 votes. On the same ballot, though, former GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte was elected the state’s next governor by a 9-point margin, receiving nearly 18,000 more votes than former Vice President Kamala Harris secured against Trump. New Hampshire Republicans have a 16-8 majority in the state Senate and picked up 21 seats in the state House of Representatives, expanding what had been a slim two-seat majority.
A Republican rejuvenation in New Hampshire can, in part, be accredited to the national Democratic Party’s open hostility to the state’s electorate. Former President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party removed New Hampshire from its position as the first primary in the presidential calendar, deciding that its voters were too white to be given the honor. New Hampshire held its primary anyway, with state Democrats such as Sen. David Watters helping Biden win a write-in campaign on a ballot he didn’t care enough to appear on for racial reasons.
Ayotte is coming into office with winning messages. She promised in her inaugural address to ban “sanctuary” policies in the state, thus distinguishing her administration in an appealing conservative way from those in other states that prioritize the desires of illegal immigrants at the expense of citizens’ safety and taxpayer dollars. Massachusetts is one example that helps Ayotte point out a contrast with New Hampshire. She is courting Massachusetts businesses to move to the Granite State if they grow sick of suffocating regulations that cover New Hampshire’s Democrat-run neighbor.
Ayotte is also trying to save taxpayers money, a winning message everywhere. She promised “no income or sales tax ever” and made her first executive order the creation of a Commission of Government Efficiency, a New Hampshire variant of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency. Its focus is on cutting down government waste. If Ayotte’s tenure is successful, New Hampshire in 2028 could flip back to the GOP for the first time since 2000.
Virginia
Virginia has become a white whale for the GOP since Republican Glenn Youngkin won the gubernatorial election in 2021, as it is visible on the electoral horizon but difficult to hunt. Along with winning races for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general, Republicans in the 2021 elections retook the House of Delegates, leading to optimism that the party could also win the state Senate in the next cycle. That didn’t happen. Instead, Republicans lost ground in the House of Delegates and are now the slim minority in both chambers of the state legislature.
Nevertheless, Virginia politics have inched to the right. Harris beat Trump in Virginia by under 6 points in 2024, down from Biden’s 10-point victory over Trump in 2020. Biden and Trump polled neck-and-neck in a 2024 rematch from halfway through April until Biden dropped out in mid-July.
Youngkin is the GOP’s ace. He has proven that Republicans can win in the commonwealth. His approval has steadily remained above 50%, hitting 57% in September, including 62% of independents. Under Youngkin, Virginia has secured three straight years with revenue surpluses of over $1 billion, business investment commitments of more than $90 billion, and $270 million per year in grocery savings for Virginians.
Whether Youngkin’s electoral success can be replicated will be tested this year, when Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears will probably face off against former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger for the governorship. A win would put an end to the notion that Virginia is a blue state and put it firmly into play for Republicans in 2028.
Minnesota
Trump came within 2 points of winning Minnesota in 2016. He lost by 7 points in 2020 but cut that deficit down to 4 points in 2024. As with Virginia, Trump polled nearly even with Biden before the former president dropped out. An Emerson poll had the race tied at 45%.
The race against Harris probably would have been closer if she hadn’t chosen Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate. Walz had a 53% approval rating among Minnesota voters and the highest favorability of the four candidates on the ticket. He was a caricature of acceptable liberal masculinity but was nonetheless popular in Minnesota throughout his tenure.
Things look different now. Walz returned from his loss to find that Democrats had lost control of the state House of Representatives, with Republicans now holding a 67-66 majority with one seat vacant. The state Senate is split 33-33 with one vacant seat, and another seat is in jeopardy for Democrats because one of their senators is facing felony burglary charges.
While Republicans hope competent GOP leadership in New Hampshire and Virginia can turn those states red, Minnesota might be driven into the GOP column more by Democratic incompetence. Spending is projected to exceed revenue soon, pushing the state into the red financially, with Minnesota Democrats burning through a $17.5 billion surplus to make a $5.1 billion deficit possible by 2028. Minnesota is on a financial cliff that cannot be blamed on Republicans. It could tip an election sooner rather than later.
A different kind of electoral swing
There is another electoral shift facing presidential politics in the coming decade. The 2030 census will change the electoral map, and all projections favor the GOP. Texas and Florida are projected to gain four electoral votes, while Utah, Idaho, Arizona, and North Carolina will all probably gain one. That’s six red states adding 12 electoral votes to the GOP column, the equivalent of flipping the state of Washington, without Republicans needing to flip another swing state.
California is projected to lose four votes, and New York will probably lose two. Reliably blue Oregon, Illinois, and Rhode Island would lose one each. If Minnesota doesn’t flip to the GOP, Democrats would still lose an electoral vote because of this reapportionment. That’s a total of 10 electoral votes Democrats would lose, the equivalent of losing Colorado without losing a single state.
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As with the swing states mentioned above, this is as much due to competent GOP governance as to terrible Democratic policies. Florida and Texas are bastions of conservatism and prosperity, while Democratic standard-bearers California and New York drive residents out to redder pastures. Republican legislatures are making it likely that there will be a favorable electoral map for the 2032 campaigns of Vice President J.D. Vance, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or whoever else has risen to the top of the party by then.
Trump’s 2024 victory was not the landslide some have suggested, but his sweep of the swing states and the trajectory of blue states under mold-breaking Republicans or flailing Democrats signal he could be the Republican president whose tenure changed the electoral landscape for years.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
