If you are confused about the government‘s tariff policy, don’t worry. You are not alone. Confusion is not your fault. Since taking office for the second time, President Donald Trump has flipped back and forth on tariffs while offering different explanations for current policy and different predictions for future policy.
There are many components to successful leadership, but an important one is communicating to constituents what your policies are, why they are needed, and how they will work. Trump has not done this for his tariffs. As a result, the economy is suffering, and voters are beginning to blame the president for their pain. Until Trump is able to deliver stability or clarity on this matter, the economic pain will continue for everyone, and the political pain for Trump and the Republican Party will worsen.
On his first day in office, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on all goods from China starting Feb. 1. On Feb. 1, Trump reannounced the tariffs but pushed the start date to Feb. 4. Then, on Feb. 3, he announced a 30-day delay for the Canada and Mexico tariffs but started the China tariffs.
On March 3, Trump reannounced the 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico but exempted goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Just two days later, on March 5, he also exempted most non-USMCA-compliant goods from the tariff.
On April 2, as promised in his March 4 address to a joint session of Congress, Trump announced a baseline 10% on all goods from all countries and a “reciprocal” tariff on select countries, supposedly based on whatever tariff and non-tariff barriers each country was enforcing on U.S. goods. It turned out these “reciprocal” tariffs were actually based on the current trade deficit the U.S. has with each country, regardless of whether that country imposed any tariffs or non-tariff trade barriers on U.S. goods.
For six days, Trump and his aides provided diametrically different accounts of the rationale and purpose of these tariffs. Some said they were put in place to raise trillions of dollars in revenue to decrease the national debt. Others said their purpose was to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. Others said they were designed to stay in place until the trade deficits with each country disappeared. Still, others said the tariffs were just an opening bid for negotiations and that Trump’s true goal was to promote free trade by lowering tariffs for U.S. goods worldwide.
Each of these explanations has some logic on its own, but in combination, they contradict one another. A tariff meant to open negotiations cannot be relied on to raise revenue or increase domestic manufacturing.
Trump flipped on his “reciprocal” tariffs just a week after their initial announcement, imposing a 90-day pause on April 9. What happens in 90 days, no one knows. However, last Friday, Trump announced that consumer electronics from China, such as smartphones, would be exempt from his new tariffs. The next day, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the exemption would be temporary, and brand new tariffs focussed specifically on consumer electronics would be announced as early as this week.
If you are hoping for clarity on consumer electronics exemptions or on the rest of the “reciprocal” tariff delays, it might be best not to hold your breath. The only constant on Trump’s tariffs so far has been chaos.
Voters have noticed, and they don’t like it, especially independent voters who helped Trump win all seven swing states last year. According to the latest YouGov poll, 55% of voters, including 57% of independents and 25% of people who said they voted for Trump, said his tariffs have hurt their financial well-being.
NO MORE UNION TIME ON TAXPAYER DIME
Generally, voter skepticism is not due to objections to tariffs. In fact, according to the latest Harvard/Harris poll, 66% of voters think tariffs are an important part of protecting jobs in the U.S. In the latest CBS poll, more than half of voters said they support Trump’s tariff goals. However, when it comes to Trump’s specific approach to tariffs, 63% said they dislike it, and 57% of independent voters said he has no “clear plan” for trade with other countries.
Trump’s overall approval rating is trending down, and it is being pulled down by his failure to explain his tariff policies so voters have a chance to understand them. If he doesn’t provide leadership, which means deciding soon on a policy and explaining its merits to the public, it could cost Trump much of his presidential agenda.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
