On Sunday, a comedian opening the Trump rally at Madison Square Garden made a joke about Puerto Rico being a garbage island. On Monday, that was all the American press corps could talk about. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden declared former President Donald Trump’s supporters were garbage, and all the media could talk about on Wednesday was whether there was an implied apostrophe in Biden’s statement. By Wednesday night, Trump was campaigning in a garbage truck and speaking on stage at a Wisconsin rally in an orange vest.
As we approach the end of the election, less than one week away, there are some trend lines to note. First, the polling trends show us this really is a tied race. We do not really have any idea who is going to win. In a super close race, the ground game matters, and Vice President Kamala Harris has the better ground game in most states.
While the polling shows a virtually tied race, the polling also continues to show a shifting race to Trump. Pollsters do not change their makeup of people polled each time. They keep a model. That model may overweigh Harris voters or Trump voters or some other group of voters. But if that poll shows a continual shift in a particular direction, even if their overall number is wrong, we can presume they are measuring a shift.
In this election, that shift has been to Trump. Over the past month, polls that had Harris up five might now have her up one. Polls that had a tied race at the beginning of the month might now have Trump ahead. It has been a pattern both in national polling and state-level polling.
Unfortunately for Republicans, the election is not today. In a very close election, every vote matters. Trump can say something between now and Election Day that alienates voters. Fortunately for Republicans, it was Biden who claimed Trump supporters are garbage. I suspect that will be more alienating to voters than a comedian telling a bad joke.
A voter who has been leaning toward Trump, but still undecided, is probably not going to suddenly vote for Harris after still leaning toward Trump despite all the attacks on him as a fascist Nazi who will end democracy just because a comedian called Puerto Rico a garbage island.
Unfortunately for Democrats, the early voting numbers have some serious warning signs. In Georgia, the percentage for black voters in early voting is below 30%. To be competitive in Georgia, black voters need to generate at least 32% and preferably 34% of the early vote to be competitive. In North Carolina, the black vote is also down from where it should be while Republicans are outpacing Democrats in the early vote for the first time in decades.
In Nevada, Republicans are outpacing Democrats for the first time in that state’s history of early voting. In Arizona, the GOP is also crushing it. Pennsylvania remains a wild card, but while Democrats are dominating early voting, Republicans are keeping it closer than they normally do.
On Wednesday night, after the media refused to give Biden’s “garbage” comment as much time as they had given a comedian’s Puerto Rico joke, Trump climbed into that garbage truck to take questions from the press and wore an orange vest on stage. He forced attention on Biden’s remarks. His campaign has been extremely proficient. Trump’s team procuring a garbage truck quickly suggests the campaign management team is focused.
Harris’ failure to find time to speak with Joe Rogan and his more than 20 million listeners suggests her campaign is just not as engaged. Her closing argument speech with the White House’s South Lawn as the backdrop got overshadowed by Biden’s “garbage” comment.
Harris could easily win this election. It is tied. But her campaign never seems quite able to capture key moments and capitalize on them. Even with an American press corps doing everything it can to help her, Team Harris often seems unable to execute its strategy as competently as Team Trump. The press now tells us it could be a week or two before we know who has won. I am just not sure that will be the case.
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