President Donald Trump is, as they say, transactional by nature, not an ideologue. His philosophy is to exert leverage by every means necessary and secure results that magnify his power and prestige. This is how he conquered the Republican Party, won the presidency twice, brokered the Abraham Accords, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and more.
But scattered among these victories of leverage application are numerous failures, instances in which he pulled the bow too tight, only to have it snap in his hands rather than deliver a bullseye. And these, too, must be factored into any honest accounting of his deal-making record.
This surely describes Trump’s failure in dealing with America’s neighbor to the north. In a mere 100 days of his second term, Trump breathed life into Canada’s progressive faction, turning what appeared to be an emerging ally marching to its own nationalist beat into a fire-breathing foe, united in opposition to Trump’s America.
Canada’s decision to elect the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney following months of polling showing him trailing Conservative Pierre Poilievre by large margins is attributable directly to Trump overplaying his hand. By calling Canada the “51st state” and referring to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau” all while slapping tariffs on Canadian goods, Trump galvanized Canada’s listless Liberals and turned lemonade into lemons.
“We are over the shock of the American betrayal but we should never forget the lessons. We have to look out for ourselves. And above all we have to take care of each other,” Carney said in his victory speech. “We will always put Canada first as we stare down tariffs and other irresponsible threats from President Trump.”
Canada’s sudden unification against Trump complicates U.S. efforts to achieve favorable outcomes in its own hemisphere. Carney has vowed to maintain retaliatory tariffs until the United States shows “respect” — and his overwhelming public support means he can likely weather an economic downturn longer than the increasingly unpopular Trump, who faces a midterm referendum in a mere 18 months.
Canada’s surge in patriotism also risks emboldening other nations under the strain of Trump’s pressure; allies like Japan and EU nations, already wary of the tariffs, may see Canada’s defiance as a model for pushing back. To be sure, not every nation will follow suit, but some may be influenced to see resisting Trump as the smart political play. Carney’s framing of the Canadian election as a referendum on allegiance to Trump’s America could undermine the U.S.’s capacity to effectively assert pressure, hindering our ability to strike favorable trade deals and counter China’s growing global influence.
MARK CARNEY FACES CHALLENGE OF REUNITING POLARIZED CANADIANS AFTER REELECTION
The Liberal Party’s win also supplies Trump’s domestic political allies with a potent talking point at a time when his polling numbers are falling into the danger zone. There is simply no way to spin this as a “win” for the U.S. or Trump — and it is very easy to frame this as a significant foreign policy failure. 100 days into his second term, Trump suddenly finds himself desperate for a win, and Canada’s election amplifies that perception.
Moving forward, Trump and his allies would do well to learn that sometimes being tough means holding your tongue, and sometimes getting the best outcome means letting political nature take its course. This was surely the case with Canada.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
