US President Donald Trump appeared to walk back some of his Gaza plan in a meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin this week. Martin was at the White House meeting with the US President when Trump said that “no one is expelling anyone from Gaza.”
This leaves questions about what comes next for Trump’s plan regarding Gaza. When he was inaugurated, he had said that Gaza was a demolition site. Later, he appeared to develop his views of Gaza as a place that was basically unlivable after the Hamas-Israel war.
He said in early February, according to CNN, “I think that it’s a big mistake to allow people — the Palestinians, or the people living in Gaza — to go back yet another time, and we don’t want Hamas going back. And think of it as a big real estate site, and the United States is going to own it, and we’ll slowly — very slowly, we’re in no rush — develop it.”
Later in February, Trump described the possibilities in Gaza. He said it could be the “Riviera of the Middle East.” However, this also involved re-settling many of the two million people who live in Gaza. There was talk of Egypt or Jordan accepting the people. “You’re going to see that they’re all going to want to leave,” the AP reported Trump said.
On February 19, this became “it’s Gaza. It’s a war-torn area. We’re going to take it. We’re going to hold it. We’re going to cherish it.” Another comment indicated that Israel would need to deal with Gaza and then hand it over to the US. Trump also indicated that Israel could do what it wanted in Gaza. He also said Israel could let “hell break loose.”
Israel’s Prime Minister and other Israeli politicians have appeared to embrace the Trump plan. Speaking to the conference of Major American Jewish Organizations on February 16, Netanyahu noted “I have to say that President Trump has presented a bold new vision and the only plan that I think can work to enable a different future for the people of Gaza, for the people of Israel, for the surrounding areas.”
He elaborated, “Why not give Gazans a choice? Everybody said this is the largest open-air prison in the world. Not because of us. We let people leave. In fact, if you want to know, over the last couple of years, two years I think, 150,000 Gazans left. You know how they left? Because they bribed their way out, not through us. They bribed their way out. The rich could leave, but if other people wanted to leave, give them a choice, not forcible eviction, not ethnic cleansing. In a war zone, people leave.”
Then he noted, “We tried to get the population to leave, to get them out of harm’s way…if people want to leave, if they want to emigrate, it’s their choice. And I think President Trump’s plan is right on the dot.”
France 24 noted on February 9 that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the Trump plan was “is taking shape, with ongoing actions in coordination with the (US) administration.”
Gazans won’t be expelled
Now that Trump has said that people are not being expelled from Gaza, it leaves questions about how the plan will take shape.
On the one hand, officials continue to indicate that Israel will enable people to leave if they want. However, the question is whether Gazans actually do want to leave, and where they would go. Do countries want to take in more than a token number of Gazans? Do they want hundreds of thousands? Is there any evidence that large numbers of people will leave? How will Israel facilitate this?
The Trump plan was similar to many times that Trump has said he supports Israel, and he has put forward a maximum position but then indicated that Israel has to be the one to do it. For instance, the “hell breaks loose” comments were also embraced by Israeli politicians. When it became clear that Israel would have to be the one bringing “hell,” the same people suddenly seemed to fall silent.
For instance, on March 1, the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire ended. Israel has not returned to war in Gaza. Instead, Hamas has appeared to receive a Ramadan ceasefire and doesn’t have to return any hostages.
Almost 60 hostages remain in Gaza. Israel doesn’t seem to place any urgency on returning them. In fact, reports indicate Israel is basically waiting on the Trump administration’s envoy Steve Witkoff to try to help get a deal. Witkoff was key to the deal in January, when 33 hostages were released in 42 days. However, Witkoff has many things on his plate. He is also dealing with the US push for a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia.
The relationship between Israel and the new Trump administration has been unique. Israel sided with the US on a vote at the UN that did not condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Many other countries had embraced the vote or abstained. Israel joined a small number of countries in backing the US. Unlike many countries in the world that have sought to either push back against the Trump administration’s initiatives or assert their own policies, Israel appears to mostly be waiting for the Trump administration to make things happen.
In Gaza, Hamas got a ceasefire, and Israel got nothing in March. This is in contrast to last Ramadan when Israel agreed to reduce the intensity of the war on Hamas but kept up some pressure. On the Trump plan for Gaza, Israeli officials appeared to leap to embrace it without a full discussion of how it would be implemented. The same thing happens with the hostages.
Meanwhile, most countries in the region are asserting their own policies. Egypt has led Arab states to push their own initiative on Gaza. European countries have said they are nonplussed with the US policy regarding Ukraine. This doesn’t mean these countries are going to confront the US very much, but they are showing they have their own policies. This is also true regarding the new tariff conflicts with the US.
The Trump administration has a doctrine. However, it also wants to get deals. It puts out maximum positions as an opening. Then it waits to see how it has stirred up the proverbial grass. This is the method of the Trump doctrine.
When countries embrace the Trump position completely, they paint themselves into a corner. This is because the White House can’t wave a magic wand and make everything happen. For instance, when it comes to Gaza, the US isn’t going to defeat Hamas for Israel.
The US can try to help bring the hostages home, but perceptions that it seemed to see the hostage issue as more urgent than Israel likely appears strange in the region. Back in 1976, when Israel embarked on the Entebbe raid, its leaders put a priority on returning hostages. They didn’t wait for the White House to give a green light and make tough statements.
Israel appears to have achieved more when it was willing to assert itself and also work with the US and other countries, rather than adopt a kind of “waiting for Godot” policy of seeing what the White House says next. Gaza is a major challenge. In the end, Israel will be required to come up with a plan. In the absence of that, it’s unlikely much will change in Gaza.
This article was originally published at www.jpost.com
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