With a strong economy and a shared adversary in Pakistan, India, the world’s most populous democracy, offers America a great and growing export opportunity for high-value trade, which serves a growing middle class. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has gained a lot more from the U.S. in recent years than he has given back. Seeking positive relations, Trump should make clear to Modi that his vast energy imports from Iran and Russia and failure to reciprocate military exercises will limit America’s ability to provide certain technologies and market opportunities. A fairer quid pro quo, a better deal, is in order and is what Trump says he’s best at.
In Latin America, strong U.S. allies, such as Colombia and Chile, and complicated partners, such as Mexico and Brazil, will all require astute management. Expanded trade alongside the rule of law should drive Trump’s focus. Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro will need reminding that any choice to destabilize the region further will result in painful riposte. And if Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum continues her predecessor’s dalliance with China and pursues a corrupt relationship with the narcotraffickers, she should find out that the price is new American tariffs and CIA efforts to eliminate traffickers on Mexican soil.
North Korea will surely push to extract more concessions from Trump in a second term. Trump did well to establish a new dialogue with Kim Jong Un and should aim to revive it. But as he successfully did in his first term, Trump must ensure that his penchant for photo opportunities does not dissuade him from the harder requirements of truly successful diplomacy with Pyongyang. A deal that safeguards North Korean nuclear weapons and suspends Kim’s intercontinental and intermediate-range ballistic missile programs is the right goal.
Then, there’s Iran. Alongside its Lebanese Hezbollah partner, Iran has temporarily been neutralized by a stunning campaign of Israeli military and intelligence service actions. Still, Iran continues to plot the assassination of former Trump administration officials such as Mike Pompeo and John Bolton. Trump himself is a target for Tehran. And with Iran having accumulated enriched uranium stocks that could be further enriched to weapons-grade purity, the threat of an Iranian rush to build a nuclear weapon will surely loom large in 2025. To counter these challenges alongside his desire to reach an improved nuclear accord with Iran, Trump will have to do three things.
First, he’ll have to increase economic pressure on Iran by revoking sanctions waivers granted to Tehran by the Biden administration. Second, he’ll have to crack down on rampant Iranian oil export smuggling by targeting those who buy that oil with their own sanctions. This will tighten Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s purse strings in a condition in which Iran and its allies have been pushed onto the back foot in the Middle East. Third, Trump should also make clear that any attack on U.S. interests by Iran or agents acting on its behalf will result in direct U.S. military retaliation. “Want to try and kill another U.S. official,” Trump should warn Tehran, “then get ready for the Guard’s various headquarters to be turned into craters.”
At the same time, a new nuclear proliferation accord with Iran that comes with verifiability and enforceability components, unlike the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action fiction, would be welcome. The U.S. does not want to get bogged down in another war, and the military challenge posed by China must take priority over military deployments in the Middle East. Trump should make clear to Iran that if it is willing to address the specific issue of nuclear weapons sincerely, he will do so in the same spirit.
With Israel, Trump should support the Jewish state’s effort to finish off Hamas as a credible military power. He should also support Israeli efforts to keep degrading Hezbollah, a terrorist group with much American blood on its hands. But if Trump is serious about pursuing an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord, he’ll also have to push back not simply against Palestinian intransigent elements but also those elements of the Israeli Right that want to seize the West Bank. These extremists undermine U.S. relations with key security allies such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia, and they fuel terrorist recruitment.
Speaking of Saudi Arabia, Trump should offer Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman his hand in friendship. The murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi on bin Salman’s orders was a disgraceful act. Nevertheless, that murder should no longer be able to atrophy U.S. relations with this long-standing ally. Saudi Arabia has been a critical U.S. counterterrorism ally and economic partner. The crown prince’s domestic reforms to diversify his economy away from oil, establish greater cultural connectivity with the West, and expand women’s rights deserve U.S. support. If the crown prince’s reforms are successful, Saudi Arabia can become a functioning modern state more receptive to Western pressure and influence to expand freedom and human rights truly (and release unjustly held prisoners). If the crown prince fails, however, Saudi Arabia will be a desert without oil export prices able to support its vast youth population with jobs and satisfied aspirations. That’s a recipe for a far more powerful Islamic State 2.0.
Facing Europe, Trump should offer both the hand of friendship and the plainer expectation of a more honest partnership.
It is intolerable that Germany is paring back defense spending only two years after promising to help take a lead for European security. It is intolerable that Canada and too many NATO allies in Europe still fail to meet NATO’s 2%-of-GDP minimum defense spending target or just barely surpass it. It is intolerable that the U.S. should be expected to provide as much aid for Ukraine as does the European Union, which has four member states bordering Ukraine.
That said, the trans-Atlantic relationship remains a critical ingredient in American prosperity, global stability, and peace. Trump’s plan to tariff all imports from historic allies would start a trade war that, as in the 1920s and 1930s, would benefit no one. Instead, Trump could offer Europe a deal: spend more on defense, spend more for Ukraine, recognize our concerns on China, or don’t and face U.S. countermeasures, and we’ll be a reliable friend that pursues a credible Ukraine peace deal alongside expanded trade and cooperation with Europe.
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claims that he is only seeking mutually beneficial respect and compromise with America, Trump would do well to remember that Russia remains the second foremost U.S. adversary. That doesn’t mean that dialogue with Russia is a mistake. But it does mean that Trump must proceed with eyes open as to what Putin actually wants from America, not simply what he says he wants.
Africa should also receive greater attention from Trump than the continent has garnered from President Joe Biden. Close partners such as Egypt and Kenya remain instrumental to regional stability and counterterrorism efforts. And having recently undertaken bold if much overdue economic reforms, Nigeria’s 235 million-strong population offers the potential of an African economic powerhouse. Commensurate with cooperation on U.S. law enforcement, security and diplomatic concerns, Nigeria and other African nations deserve Trump’s push for greater U.S. private investment. China’s effort to woo African nations also deserves America’s attention.
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None of this will be easy, of course. And other unexpected crisis events will evolve and explode out of the blue. Trump’s job does not afford him the luxury of selective interest.
But by seizing both opportunities and challenges with a spirit of hardheaded dialogue, one backed up by strength, Trump can accomplish great things over the next four years.
This article was originally published at www.washingtonexaminer.com
