Why isn’t Harris winning by a lot?

And that leads to the question: Why isn’t Vice President Kamala Harris leading? The entire Democratic Party, plus its allies in the larger political world and in the legal system, plus the entertainment industry, plus much of the media — haven’t they thrown everything they have at former President Donald Trump? With all that firepower, how is Trump still standing, let alone tied with Harris? More pointedly, why isn’t Harris winning by a big margin?

The last three polls in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls have Trump and Harris tied (New York Times), Harris up by 2 points (Fox News), and Trump up by 2 (Rasmussen). The seven key states look like this, from the RealClearPolitics average: North Carolina, Trump +0.1; Nevada, Harris +0.2; Pennsylvania, Harris +1.0; Wisconsin, Harris +1.2; Arizona, Trump +1.6; and Michigan, Harris +1.7. 

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It’s fair to call it tied in every way. And the reason that seems remarkable is that in the last year, Democrats or their allies have:

1. Indicted Trump in connection with the 2020 election and Jan. 6.

2. Indicted Trump a second time in connection with the 2020 election.

3. Indicted and convicted Trump in connection with the 2016 election.

4. Indicted Trump in connection with classified documents.

5. Changed candidates in peak election season when Trump was leading.

6. Given Trump’s new opponent, Harris, overwhelmingly positive news coverage.

7. Given Trump overwhelmingly negative news coverage.

8. Sued in multiple jurisdictions to use the 14th Amendment to remove Trump from ballots.

9. Filed and won a lawsuit aimed at destroying Trump’s business empire.

10. Filed a lawsuit using special, unprecedented legal maneuvers to accuse him of sexual misconduct 25 years earlier.

Finally, of course, two unstable individuals have tried to kill Trump, one shooting him in the ear on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania, and the other lying in wait to kill him on Sept. 15 before being caught by the Secret Service.

Looking at the list, it’s a wonder Trump is still standing, much less that he is tied in a presidential contest. And yet he is. Some of the attacks on him have backfired, but some have hit their marks. It’s certainly reasonable to argue that the relentless lawfare, and then the assassination attempts, have taken a toll on Trump. At times that should have been high season for campaigning, he has been stuck in a courtroom or hunkered down for his own safety. That would be a draining experience for anyone, Trump included.

Yet the race is tied. Trump is very much in it. Yes, you can make arguments about current divisions in the electorate and 2024 as a base election, but it’s still just plain remarkable.

On the other side, Harris was handed the Democratic nomination after a secretive group of party insiders muscled President Joe Biden out of the race. She has not had to go through the grueling 18-month process of primaries, caucuses, campaigning, travel, more travel, speeches, gaffes, interviews, town halls, glad-handing, and all of the exhausting stuff that makes up a serious presidential campaign. “The short campaign benefits Kamala Harris in a lot of ways,” senior campaign adviser and Obama veteran David Plouffe said during the Democratic convention. He was right.

Perhaps most of all, Harris has escaped the level of scrutiny that has been a feature of Trump’s life for eight years. News reports indicate it is her plan to keep that up through Election Day, which, with the help of some compliant allies in the media, she might succeed in doing.

Yet for all that, Harris is not leading the race. Why isn’t she ahead by 10 points? Fifteen? More? Fill in whatever theory you like. But the fact is, given everything that has happened, it is nothing short of astonishing that this race is dead even so close to the election.