With Astros' rotation stabilized, Justin Verlander's postseason role TBD

ANAHEIM, Calif. — Lingering behind every Framber Valdez gem, every step toward stardom for Hunter Brown and every stabilizing victory from Yusei Kikuchi, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti, is a question surrounding the sixth and currently shakiest member of Houston’s steadied rotation, a future Hall of Famer searching to find his way again.

As the Astros track toward a fourth straight division title and an eighth straight season of postseason baseball, how, if at all, will Justin Verlander fit into their October mix?

The query does not yet require an answer, even as Valdez and Brown have established themselves as the team’s clear-cut top duo, as Kikuchi has settled a rotation previously in flux, and as Blanco and Arrighetti have emerged as the next-best postseason starting options for the time being.

The form that will one day have Cooperstown calling has eluded Verlander since his return from a two-plus month stint on the injured list. Few opportunities remain for the three-time Cy Young Award winner to demonstrate his worthiness of a postseason roster spot for reasons beyond pedigree and prestige. But for now, with 11 regular-season games left on the schedule, the Astros coaching staff is still expressing optimism that the 41-year-old will get right while acknowledging the stark reality of the calendar.

“We don’t have that many games left,” manager Joe Espada said before Verlander’s last outing Saturday in Anaheim, “and every start is impactful.”

Houston’s five-game division lead over the Mariners should afford the club time to run its decision out, likely giving Verlander two more chances to look more like the pitcher who had a 3.95 ERA prior to his neck injury and less like the version who has amassed an 8.34 ERA in five games since returning from the IL. That number was even higher before Saturday.

Coming off a three-inning, eight-run outing in which he served up two homers and failed to record a strikeout against the Diamondbacks, Verlander and his manager described the veteran pitcher’s latest start — a five-inning, two-run performance against the last-place Angels in Anaheim — as a “step in the right direction,” though it couldn’t have made much of a dent in the rotation’s pecking order.

Opponents are batting .320 against Verlander since his return from injury. Unable to consistently land breaking balls for strikes, hitters could feast on his fastball. On Saturday, Espada was hoping to see quicker outs and more off-balance swings, uncomfortable at-bats and less predictability in his sequencing. Improvements were evident, but more marginal than monumental.

Outs were still “tough,” Verlander acknowledged. He struck out two batters and induced just nine whiffs on his 89 pitches. He didn’t get his first swing-and-miss until pitch No. 16, at which point the Angels were already on the board. Verlander needed 27 pitches to escape the first inning and lamented still being unable to get his fastball by hitters or to get chase on his secondaries.

He’s not surrendering a lot of hard contact this year, but his 18.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career, his 7.5% walk rate is his highest since 2017, his chase rate is down more than 5% from last season, and he has not gone more than five innings in a start since May. Over his first three September starts, he has more walks (seven) than strikeouts (five).

If the Astros were limping into the postseason with the same middling rotation that ranked 19th in ERA in the season’s first half, they might just live with whatever Verlander has to give. But the group has transformed since then.

Despite Verlander’s struggles, Astros starters rank second in ERA in the majors since the break. The addition of Kikuchi, and the ascension of Houston’s rotation, has played a vital role in lifting the squad from the abyss back into a championship contender.

It starts with Valdez, who leads all qualified MLB starters with a 1.33 ERA since the beginning of August and came one out away from a no-hitter last month, but there is quality throughout. Blanco completed a no-hitter to begin his breakout campaign and ranks second in the American League in ERA. The Astros have won all eight of Kikuchi’s starts since acquiring him from the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, which is around the same time Arrighetti started to throw more curveballs and watched his strikeout rate soar. The 2021 sixth-round pick earned AL Rookie of the Month honors in August after fanning 47 batters in 32.1 innings, including three different starts of at least 11 strikeouts.

Most notably, though, is what Brown has accomplished.

The Detroit native, who grew up watching Verlander and modeling his mechanics after the former Tigers star, leads the AL with a 2.32 ERA since the beginning of June. It’s a massive leap forward from where Brown was at in the middle of April, when he was fighting to hold onto a spot in the rotation after allowing 11 hits and recording two outs in his third start of the year.

“After you get run out in the first inning with arguably the worst start in major-league history, you might look in the mirror and you’re like, ‘Alright, let’s figure this out,'” Brown said. “I wouldn’t say I was buried confidence-wise, but it was like, ‘Alright, don’t want that to happen again.”

There were a few remedies. He tried not to think beyond the next pitch, and he reminded himself of the words of former manager Dusty Baker: “Hey, man, you’re only one start away from a streak.” Espada also noticed that Brown started to do a better job not sweating the small stuff, be it a poor play behind him or a broken-bat flare finding grass, than he had in the past.

But more than anything, what turned Brown’s season was an arsenal tweak.

After throwing a two-seamer at Wayne State University, the 2019 fifth-round pick tabled the pitch early in his pro career. At the time, Brown said there was more of an emphasis on “good, hoppy four seams” and “big downer breaking balls.” He threw primarily four-seamers, cutters and curveballs when he reached the majors two years ago, but everything he threw tailed away from right-handed hitters, who slugged .498 against him last season. The 26-year-old needed to find something that could get in on their hands.

Before his May 5 start against the Mariners, Brown brought the two-seamer back. He had a 9.78 ERA in six starts before the change and has a 2.55 ERA in his 24 outings (23 starts) since. He now throws the two-seamer to right-handers — who are slugging just .375 against him — more than any other pitch. His hard-hit rate has dropped from 44.4% last year down to 30.5% in 2024, which is one of the best marks in the sport.

“Granted, if you go look, righties are still hitting a pretty high average, but the damage that I’m giving up is a lot less,” Brown said. “So, I think the trade-off was definitely good.”

If the season ended today, the Astros would be the AL’s No. 3 seed and host a wild-card series. If that remains the case over the next couple of weeks, they will want to set their rotation at the end of September to have Valdez and Brown ready for those games at the start of October. Kikuchi would likely take the ball next.

Blanco’s production this year makes him a deserving third or fourth playoff starter, but he also brings experience in the bullpen and has already thrown three times as many innings as he did last year. Astros pitching coaches are in constant conversation with him after each start and are managing his work between outings. Eleven days ago, they afforded him a brief deload by throwing him out of the bullpen. He struck out five batters in two scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks, then got a week off before shutting the Angels out over six innings this past Sunday.

Verlander, meanwhile, has started 561 of his 562 career appearances between the regular season and postseason. The only time he entered in relief was in Game 4 of the 2017 American League Division Series, when he emerged four days after starting Game 1 to help the bullpen take down 2.2 innings before returning to his usual role. Last year, he registered a 2.95 ERA in his three playoff starts, productive work the Astros would take again if he could replicate that form.

“I still think that JV is going to turn it around and start pitching to his capabilities,” Espada said. “But with Valdez, Brown, Kikuchi and Blanco, I think we can stretch it out where we can make it work.”

As the days on the calendar dwindle, an uncomfortable decision looms.

But a once-depleted rotation that lost Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy for the season is suddenly deep enough that it should be considered a strength come October, a group capable of making a run to the World Series regardless of the choice they make with their all-time franchise leader in postseason wins, starts and strikeouts.

“I fully expect that Justin’s going to be part of that,” pitching coach Bill Murphy said before Verlander’s most recent start. “He’s a huge piece. Again, he is one of the best pitchers in the history of baseball. But we can go toe-to-toe with anybody from the pitching aspect.”

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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